Invesco Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

IVR
 Stock
  

USD 12.97  0.28  2.11%   

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Invesco Mortgage Capital is 'Sell'. Macroaxis provides Invesco Mortgage buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding IVR positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Invesco Mortgage's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Invesco Mortgage's buy-and-hold perspective. Please see Invesco Mortgage Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Invesco and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Invesco Mortgage Capital.

Execute Invesco Mortgage Buy or Sell Advice

The Invesco recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Invesco Mortgage Capital. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Invesco Mortgage Capital or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Invesco Mortgage's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Invesco MortgageBuy Invesco Mortgage
Sell

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Financial Strenth (F Score)

Details

Financial Leverage

Inapplicable
Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon Invesco Mortgage Capital has a Mean Deviation of 2.43, Standard Deviation of 3.69 and Variance of 13.6
Our advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on Invesco Mortgage and to analyze the company potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure Invesco Mortgage Capital is not overpriced, please check out all Invesco Mortgage fundamentals, including its book value per share, and the relationship between the net income and beta . Given that Invesco Mortgage Capital has a price to book of 0.99 X, we strongly advise you to confirm Invesco Mortgage Capital market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your regular risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Invesco Mortgage Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Invesco Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Invesco Mortgage has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company has 14.36 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 5.11, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Invesco Mortgage Capital has a current ratio of 0.08, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Invesco Mortgage until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Invesco Mortgage's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Invesco Mortgage Capital sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Invesco to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Invesco Mortgage's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Reported Net Loss for the year was (90 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (62.53 M).
Invesco Mortgage has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
On 27th of October 2022 Invesco Mortgage paid $ 0.65 per share dividend to its current shareholders

Invesco Mortgage Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Invesco Mortgage's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Invesco Mortgage's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Invesco Mortgage stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Invesco Mortgage Capital price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Invesco Mortgage returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Invesco Mortgage.
Mean Return-0.11Value At Risk-5.14
Potential Upside5.68Standard Deviation3.69
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Invesco Mortgage historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Invesco Mortgage Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(72.79 M)46.62 M153.88 M103.08 M184.47 M199.03 M
Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals6.22 M1.12 M1.35 M6.5 M3.85 M5.07 M
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities2.66 B(621.75 M)3.93 B(11.94 B)(240.87 M)(247.2 M)
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(212.69 M)(234.37 M)(271.23 M)(137.5 M)(133.07 M)(143.57 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing2.73 B(879.2 M)4.13 B(11.62 B)(88.57 M)(90.9 M)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(3.12 B)621.55 M(4.32 B)11.55 B120.75 M130.28 M
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(3.09 B)671.45 M(3.74 B)12.35 B(39.26 M)(42.36 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations317.95 M304.26 M343.36 M170.46 M152.29 M156.3 M

Invesco Mortgage Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Invesco Mortgage or Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Invesco Mortgage's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Invesco stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.31
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.65
σ
Overall volatility
3.80
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Invesco Mortgage Volatility Alert

Invesco Mortgage Capital exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.32 and kurtosis of 3.28. However, we advise investors to further study Invesco Mortgage Capital technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Invesco Mortgage's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Invesco Mortgage's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Invesco Mortgage Implied Volatility

Invesco Mortgage's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Invesco Mortgage Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Invesco Mortgage's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Invesco Mortgage stock will not fluctuate a lot when Invesco Mortgage's options are near their expiration.

Invesco Mortgage Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Invesco Mortgage's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Invesco Mortgage's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Invesco Mortgage and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Invesco Mortgage or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Invesco Mortgage's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Invesco Mortgage by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Invesco Mortgage to competition
FundamentalsInvesco MortgagePeer Average
Return On Equity(69.84) %(0.31) %
Return On Asset(0.07) %(0.14) %
Operating Margin1.06 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation9.08 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding35.5 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.26 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions54.47 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted4.54 M4.71 M
Price to Earning78.00 X28.72 X
Price to Book0.99 X9.51 X
Price to Sales5.92 X11.42 X
Revenue(63.41 M)9.43 B
Gross Profit(62.53 M)27.38 B
EBITDA(122.67 M)3.9 B
Net Income(90 M)570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents357.13 M2.7 B
Cash per Share4.95 X5.01 X
Total Debt14.36 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity5.11 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.08 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share13.08 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations152.29 M971.22 M
Short Ratio6.23 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(15.77) X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth(6.09) X4.89 X
Target Price12.5
Beta1.48-0.15
Market Capitalization458.52 M19.03 B
Total Asset8.44 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(835.92 M)9.33 B
Working Capital(11.77 B)1.48 B
Current Asset443.96 M9.34 B
Current Liabilities12.22 B7.9 B
   Acquisition by Carolyn Handlon of 54285 shares of Invesco Mortgage subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

About Invesco Mortgage Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Invesco Mortgage Capital? Buying financial instruments such as Invesco Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2017 2018 2021 2022 (projected)
Accounts Payable2.2 M1.69 M1.52 M1.6 M
Receivables73.22 M66.6 M76.59 M78.6 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Invesco Mortgage in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Hotels Theme
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You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Hotels Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Please see Invesco Mortgage Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.

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Is Invesco Mortgage's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Invesco Mortgage. If investors know Invesco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Invesco Mortgage listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.69) 
Market Capitalization
458.5 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.34) 
Return On Assets
(0.07) 
Return On Equity
(69.84) 
The market value of Invesco Mortgage Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Invesco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Invesco Mortgage's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Invesco Mortgage's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Invesco Mortgage's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Invesco Mortgage's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Invesco Mortgage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Invesco Mortgage value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Invesco Mortgage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.