Harley Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

HOG -  USA Stock  

USD 36.61  0.88  2.35%

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your bold attitude towards risk, our recommendation regarding Harley-Davidson is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Harley Davidson buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding HOG positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Harley Davidson's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
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The advice is provided from Harley Davidson's buy-and-hold perspective. Please check Harley Davidson Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Harley and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Harley-Davidson.

Execute Harley Davidson Buy or Sell Advice

The Harley recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Harley-Davidson. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Harley-Davidson or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Harley Davidson's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Harley DavidsonBuy Harley Davidson
Strong Hold

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

Close to AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Actively responds to the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Harley-Davidson has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.07), Jensen Alpha of 0.1152, Total Risk Alpha of 0.2018 and Treynor Ratio of (0.1)
Harley-Davidson investment recommendation module can be used to check and cross-verify current trade recommendations provided by analysts evaluating the entity's potential to grow using all of fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time. To make sure Harley-Davidson is not overpriced, please check out all Harley Davidson fundamentals, including its price to sales, debt to equity, beta, as well as the relationship between the net income and short ratio . Given that Harley-Davidson has a price to earning of 10.42 X, we strongly advise you to confirm Harley-Davidson market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your regular risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Harley Davidson Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Harley-Davidson generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Harley-Davidson has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Harley-Davidson was previously known as HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol HDI.
Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
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Harley Davidson current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Harley analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Harley analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price50.89
Target Median Price50.00
Target High Price70.00
Recommendation Mean2.30
Number Of Analyst Opinions9
Target Low Price39.00
Average Consensus Hold
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Harley Davidson Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Harley Davidson's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Harley Davidson's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Harley Davidson stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Harley-Davidson price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Harley Davidson returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Harley Davidson stock.
Mean Return-0.17Value At Risk-5.31
Potential Upside5.73Standard Deviation3.05
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Harley Davidson historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Harley Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Harley Davidson is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Harley-Davidson backward and forwards among themselves. Harley Davidson's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Harley Davidson's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Kiltearn Partners LlpCommon Shares1.8 M72.3 M
Pacer Advisors IncCommon Shares429.6 K16.9 M
California Public Employees Retirement SystemCommon Shares324.5 K12.8 M
Thompson Siegel Walmsley LlcCommon Shares240.1 K9.5 M
Retirement Systems Of AlabamaCommon Shares201.9 KM
New York State Teachers Retirement SystemCommon Shares189.5 K7.5 M
Advisor Group Holdings IncCommon Shares34.3 K5.7 M
Simplex Trading LlcPut Options91.1 K3.6 M
Simplex Trading LlcCall Options60.2 K2.4 M
Note, although Harley Davidson's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Harley Davidson Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(206.29 M)(213.52 M)(181.44 M)(131.05 M)(120.18 M)(129.67 M)
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(80.92 M)513.54 M(354.38 M)2.5 B(1.38 B)(1.42 B)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares(453.91 M)(387.08 M)(296.52 M)(8.01 M)(11.62 M)(12.54 M)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities155.51 M618.13 M(182.07 M)1.37 B(1.99 B)(2.05 B)
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(251.86 M)(245.81 M)(237.22 M)(68.09 M)(92.43 M)(99.72 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(550.26 M)(14.76 M)(712.22 M)1.37 B(1.88 B)(1.93 B)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(562.47 M)(662.27 M)(508.13 M)(66.78 M)(459.45 M)(495.72 M)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(356.72 M)(437.15 M)(347.61 M)42.8 M(341.41 M)(368.36 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations1.01 B1.21 B868.27 M1.18 B975.7 M1.11 B
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash26.75 M(15.35 M)(2.31 M)18.71 M(15.27 M)(15.67 M)

Harley Davidson Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Harley Davidson or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Harley Davidson stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Harley stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.12
β
Beta against DOW1.82
σ
Overall volatility
3.06
Ir
Information ratio -0.0053

Harley Davidson Volatility Alert

Harley-Davidson exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.27 and kurtosis of 0.4. However, we advise investors to further study Harley-Davidson technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Harley Davidson's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Harley Davidson's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Harley Davidson Implied Volatility

Harley Davidson's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Harley-Davidson stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Harley Davidson's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Harley Davidson stock will not fluctuate a lot when Harley Davidson's options are near their expiration.

Harley Davidson Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Harley Davidson's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Harley Davidson's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Harley Davidson and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Harley Davidson or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Harley Davidson's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harley Davidson by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Harley Davidson to competition
FundamentalsHarley DavidsonPeer Average
Return On Equity25.93 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset3.99 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin10.55 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin18.34 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation12.17 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding153.88 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.66 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions95.78 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted18.17 M4.71 M
Price to Earning10.42 X28.72 X
Price to Book2.60 X9.51 X
Price to Sales1.09 X11.42 X
Revenue5.05 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.04 B27.38 B
EBITDA925.53 M3.9 B
Net Income532.06 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents1.12 B2.7 B
Cash per Share7.25 X5.01 X
Total Debt7.28 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity3.12 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.37 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share13.78 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations968.37 M971.22 M
Short Ratio8.24 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share3.44 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth0.23 X4.89 X
Number of Employees5.15 K18.84 K
Beta1.47-0.15
Market Capitalization5.51 B19.03 B
Total Asset3.86 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings3.42 B9.33 B
Working Capital1.08 B1.48 B
Current Asset2.07 B9.34 B
   Exercise or conversion by Osullivan Coyne Edel M of 1587 shares of Harley Davidson subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Harley Davidson Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Harley . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution35964.34
Daily Balance Of Power(0.95)
Rate Of Daily Change0.98
Day Median Price36.83
Day Typical Price36.75
Market Facilitation Index0.0
Price Action Indicator(0.66)

About Harley Davidson Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Harley-Davidson? Buying financial instruments such as Harley Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Harley Davidson investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables2.53 B1.65 B1.49 B1.7 B
Inventories603.57 M523.5 M471.15 M451.55 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Harley Davidson in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Macroaxis Picks Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Please check Harley Davidson Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Harley-Davidson information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Harley Davidson's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try ETF Directory module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.

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Is Harley Davidson's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Harley Davidson. If investors know Harley will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Harley Davidson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Harley-Davidson is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Harley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Harley Davidson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Harley Davidson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Harley Davidson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Harley Davidson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Harley Davidson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Harley Davidson value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Harley Davidson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.