Ford Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

F -  USA Stock  

USD 13.63  0.51  3.89%

Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Ford Motor is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Ford buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Ford positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Ford's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
Refresh
The advice is provided from Ford's buy-and-hold perspective. Please check Ford Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Ford and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Ford Motor.

Execute Ford Buy or Sell Advice

The Ford recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Ford Motor. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Ford Motor or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Ford's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell FordBuy Ford
Hold

Volatility

Not too volatileDetails

Hype Condition

Under hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

Close to AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Actively responds to the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

PoorDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Ford Motor has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0921, Jensen Alpha of 0.1317, Total Risk Alpha of 0.0699, Sortino Ratio of 0.0647 and Treynor Ratio of 0.1415
Our trade advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on Ford Motor and to analyze the company potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure Ford is not overpriced, please confirm all Ford Motor fundamentals, including its price to book, cash and equivalents, cash flow from operations, as well as the relationship between the gross profit and debt to equity . Given that Ford Motor has a price to earning of 17.53 X, we urge you to verify Ford Motor market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Ford Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Ford Motor has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Exercise or conversion by Ashwani Galhotra of 25892 shares of Ford subject to Rule 16b-3

Ford current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Ford analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Ford analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price18.40
Target Median Price18.00
Target High Price32.00
Recommendation Mean2.80
Number Of Analyst Opinions22
Target Low Price11.80
Average Consensus Hold
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Ford Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Ford's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Ford's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Ford stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Ford Motor price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Ford returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Ford stock.
Mean Return0.23Value At Risk-3.79
Potential Upside5.00Standard Deviation2.83
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Ford historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Ford Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Ford is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ford Motor backward and forwards among themselves. Ford's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Ford's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Vanguard Group IncCommon Shares325.3 M5.5 B
Blackrock IncCommon Shares272.7 M4.6 B
State Street CorpCommon Shares175.6 MB
Newport Trust CoCommon Shares147.1 M2.5 B
Geode Capital Management LlcCommon Shares68 M1.1 B
Bank Of America CorpCommon Shares64.7 M1.1 B
Northern Trust CorpCommon Shares40 M676.7 M
Susquehanna International Group LlpPut Options30.2 M510.5 M
Citadel Advisors LlcCall Options19.7 M333.3 M
Note, although Ford's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Ford Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(7.05 B)(7.79 B)(7.63 B)(5.74 B)(6.23 B)(6.72 B)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion9.24 B9.38 B9.69 B8.75 B7.32 B8.53 B
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents2.62 B(1.73 B)834 M8.19 B(5.2 B)(5.33 B)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares(145 M)(131 M)(164 M)(237 M)(272.55 M)(294.07 M)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities6.26 B3.14 B(277 M)3.1 B(22.99 B)(23.59 B)
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(2.58 B)(2.9 B)(2.39 B)(596 M)(403 M)(434.82 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing3.39 B(122 M)(3.13 B)2.31 B(23.5 B)(24.12 B)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(19.36 B)(16.26 B)(13.72 B)(18.61 B)2.75 B2.96 B
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(12.28 B)(8.3 B)(6.05 B)(14.71 B)9.18 B9.91 B
Net Cash Flow from Operations18.1 B15.02 B17.64 B24.27 B15.79 B17.29 B
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash489 M(370 M)45 M225 M(232 M)(250.32 M)
Share Based Compensation210 M246 M191 M228 M305 M279.62 M

Ford Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ford or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ford stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ford stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.13
β
Beta against DOW1.54
σ
Overall volatility
2.74
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Ford Volatility Alert

Ford Motor currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.06 and Jensen Alpha of 0.13. However, we advise investors to further question Ford Motor expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ford's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ford's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Ford Implied Volatility

Ford's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ford Motor stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ford's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ford stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ford's options are near their expiration.

Ford Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Ford's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Ford's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Ford and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Ford or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Ford's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ford by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Ford to competition
FundamentalsFordPeer Average
Return On Equity29.17 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset2.27 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin8.59 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin6.92 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation164.01 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding3.93 B571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.20 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions59.56 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted115.04 M4.71 M
Price to Earning17.53 X28.72 X
Price to Book1.37 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.37 X11.42 X
Revenue134.59 B9.43 B
Gross Profit16.51 B27.38 B
EBITDA14.76 B3.9 B
Net Income11.56 B570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents28.61 B2.7 B
Cash per Share7.12 X5.01 X
Total Debt135.6 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity3.01 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.17 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share9.16 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations10.21 B971.22 M
Short Ratio1.72 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share0.71 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth0.09 X4.89 X
Number of Employees183 K18.84 K
Beta1.1-0.15
Market Capitalization49.95 B19.03 B
Total Asset224.93 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings17.97 B9.33 B
Working Capital(34.84 B)1.48 B
Current Asset43.49 B9.34 B
   Ford exotic insider transaction detected [view details]

Ford Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Ford . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution1.5 M
Daily Balance Of Power1.307692
Rate Of Daily Change1.04
Day Median Price13.44
Day Typical Price13.5
Price Action Indicator0.45

About Ford Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Ford Motor? Buying financial instruments such as Ford Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Ford investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables62.89 B52.39 B43.91 B56.39 B
Inventories10.79 B10.81 B12.06 B10.11 B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Ford in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Real Estate Thematic Idea Now

Real Estate
Real Estate Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Real Estate theme has 61 constituents.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Real Estate Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
View All  Next Launch Real Estate
Please check Ford Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Ford Motor information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ford's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for Ford Stock analysis

When running Ford Motor price analysis, check to measure Ford's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ford is operating at the current time. Most of Ford's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ford's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ford's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ford to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Go
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Go
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Go
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Is Ford's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ford. If investors know Ford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ford listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Ford Motor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ford's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ford's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ford's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ford's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ford's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ford value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ford's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.