Etsy Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

ETSY -  USA Stock  

USD 221.09  5.19  2.40%

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your conservative risk appetite, our recommendation regarding Etsy Inc is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Etsy buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Etsy positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Etsy's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.

Etsy Advice 

 
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The advice is provided from Etsy's buy-and-hold perspective. Continue to Etsy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Etsy and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Etsy Inc.

Execute Etsy Buy or Sell Advice

The Etsy recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Etsy Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Etsy Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Etsy's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell EtsyBuy Etsy
Hold

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds of Distress

Very SmallDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Slowly supersedes the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

StrongDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Etsy Inc has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0976, Jensen Alpha of 0.3237, Total Risk Alpha of 0.3022, Sortino Ratio of 0.0931 and Treynor Ratio of 1.03
Macroaxis provides advice on Etsy Inc to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Etsy Inc. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Etsy is not overpriced, please confirm all Etsy Inc fundamentals, including its debt to equity, and the relationship between the gross profit and price to earnings to growth . Given that Etsy Inc has a number of shares shorted of 9.65 M, we urge you to verify Etsy Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Etsy Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Etsy Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Etsy Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.fool.com: Etsy Earnings Numbers Investors Need to Know - Motley Fool

Etsy current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Etsy analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Etsy analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price221.37
Target Median Price220.00
Target High Price270.00
Recommendation Mean1.90
Number Of Analyst Opinions19
Target Low Price163.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Etsy Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Etsy's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Etsy's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Etsy stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Etsy Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Etsy returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Etsy stock.
Mean Return0.34Value At Risk-4.57
Potential Upside3.64Standard Deviation2.93
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Etsy historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Etsy Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Etsy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Etsy Inc backward and forwards among themselves. Etsy's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Etsy's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Davenport Co Llc 1Common Shares393.4 K81.8 M
Lgt Capital Partners LtdCommon Shares286.8 K59.6 M
Envestnet Asset Management IncCommon Shares258.4 K53.7 M
Scout Investments IncCommon Shares147.3 K30.6 M
State Of Alaska Department Of RevenueCommon Shares67.3 K14 M
Sarabay FinancialCommon Shares56.7 K11.8 M
Tiaa FsbCommon Shares47.8 K9.9 M
Note, although Etsy's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Etsy Cash Flow Accounts

201620172018201920202021 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(47.75 M)(13.16 M)(20.56 M)(15.28 M)(7.11 M)(7.67 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion22.52 M27.2 M26.74 M48.03 M58.19 M45.99 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(89.65 M)133.85 M51.54 M76.31 M800.81 M864.03 M
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares10.57 M23.54 M(116.39 M)(167.19 M)(243.33 M)(249.74 M)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities(6.09 M)(13.68 M)318.82 M627.26 M493.09 M532.02 M
Net Cash Flow from Financing(524 K)6.55 M144.01 M359.61 M119.28 M121.49 M
Net Cash Flow from Investing(135.43 M)61.84 M(285.39 M)(488.37 M)(11.38 M)(12.28 M)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(79.8 M)74.99 M(229.34 M)(200.72 M)(3.39 M)(3.66 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations47.96 M69.1 M198.93 M206.92 M678.96 M732.56 M
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash(1.66 M)(3.64 M)(6 M)(1.85 M)13.95 M15.05 M
Share Based Compensation15.9 M26.56 M38.23 M44.4 M65.11 M70.25 M

Etsy Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Etsy or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Etsy stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Etsy stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.32
β
Beta against DOW0.32
σ
Overall volatility
2.94
Ir
Information ratio 0.11

Etsy Volatility Alert

Etsy Inc shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. We advise investors to inspect Etsy Inc further and ensure that all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with the estimation of Etsy future alpha. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Etsy's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Etsy's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Etsy Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Etsy's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Etsy's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Etsy and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Etsy or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Etsy's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Etsy by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Etsy to competition
FundamentalsEtsyPeer Average
Return On Equity91.44 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset13.10 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin22.45 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin25.69 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation27.73 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding127.1 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.61 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions91.45 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted9.65 M4.71 M
Price to Earning62.79 X28.72 X
Price to Book41.00 X9.51 X
Price to Sales13.08 X11.42 X
Revenue2.15 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.26 B27.38 B
EBITDA551.91 M3.9 B
Net Income482.32 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents2.48 B2.7 B
Cash per Share19.63 X5.01 X
Total Debt2.32 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity4.38 %48.70 %
Current Ratio6.61 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share5.39 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations699.02 M971.22 M
Short Ratio3.22 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share3.52 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth1.34 X4.89 X
Number of Employees1.6 K18.84 K
Beta1.61-0.15
Market Capitalization28.1 B19.03 B
Total Asset553.06 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings(233.4 M)9.33 B
Working Capital278.93 M1.48 B
Current Asset359.05 M9.34 B
   Exercise or conversion by Buckley Merilee of 908 shares of Etsy subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

About Etsy Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Etsy Inc? Buying financial instruments such as Etsy Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Etsy investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2018 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Accounts Payable26.55 M26.32 M40.88 M44.11 M
Receivables12.24 M15.39 M22.61 M20.17 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Etsy in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Pharmaceutical Products Thematic Idea Now

Pharmaceutical Products
Pharmaceutical Products Theme
Fama and French focuses on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. Pharmaceutical Products theme has 61 constituents.
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Continue to Etsy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Etsy Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Etsy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Shere Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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When running Etsy Inc price analysis, check to measure Etsy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Etsy is operating at the current time. Most of Etsy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Etsy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Etsy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Etsy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Etsy Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Etsy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Etsy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Etsy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Etsy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Etsy Inc underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Etsy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Etsy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Etsy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.