Etsy Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

ETSY -  USA Stock  

USD 163.14  14.29  9.60%

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your bold attitude towards risk, our recommendation regarding Etsy Inc is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Etsy buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Etsy positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Etsy's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.

Etsy Advice 

 
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The advice is provided from Etsy's buy-and-hold perspective. Continue to Etsy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Etsy and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Etsy Inc.

Execute Etsy Buy or Sell Advice

The Etsy recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Etsy Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Etsy Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Etsy's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell EtsyBuy Etsy
Strong Hold

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Under hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

Very LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Etsy Inc has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.11), Jensen Alpha of (0.52), Total Risk Alpha of (0.31) and Treynor Ratio of (0.64)
Macroaxis provides advice on Etsy Inc to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Etsy Inc. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Etsy is not overpriced, please confirm all Etsy Inc fundamentals, including its debt to equity, and the relationship between the gross profit and price to earnings to growth . Given that Etsy Inc has a number of shares shorted of 9.07 M, we urge you to verify Etsy Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Etsy Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Etsy Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Etsy Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.barrons.com: Analysts Bullish on Etsys Long-Term Growth Opportunities and Low Valuation - Barrons

Etsy current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Etsy analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Etsy analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price262.77
Target Median Price262.50
Target High Price330.00
Recommendation Mean2.00
Number Of Analyst Opinions20
Target Low Price179.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Etsy Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Etsy's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Etsy's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Etsy stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Etsy Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Etsy returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Etsy stock.
Mean Return-0.56Value At Risk-6.29
Potential Upside5.58Standard Deviation3.80
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Etsy historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Etsy Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Etsy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Etsy Inc backward and forwards among themselves. Etsy's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Etsy's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Lgt Capital Partners LtdCommon Shares291 K63.7 M
Scout Investments IncCommon Shares233.3 K51.1 M
Stratos Wealth Partners LtdCommon Shares142.5 K31.2 M
State Of Alaska Department Of RevenueCommon Shares58.8 K12.9 M
Sarabay FinancialCommon Shares57.7 K12.6 M
Dock Street Asset Management IncCommon Shares33.6 K7.4 M
Dnb Asset Management AsCommon Shares20.2 K4.4 M
First Hawaiian BankDebt436 K585 K
Note, although Etsy's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Etsy Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(13.16 M)(20.56 M)(15.28 M)(7.11 M)(8.18 M)(8.82 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion27.2 M26.74 M48.03 M58.19 M66.92 M72.2 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents133.85 M51.54 M76.31 M800.81 M920.93 M993.63 M
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares23.54 M(116.39 M)(167.19 M)(243.33 M)(219 M)(224.76 M)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities(13.68 M)318.82 M627.26 M493.09 M567.05 M611.82 M
Net Cash Flow from Financing6.55 M144.01 M359.61 M119.28 M137.17 M130.91 M
Net Cash Flow from Investing61.84 M(285.39 M)(488.37 M)(11.38 M)(10.24 M)(11.05 M)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals74.99 M(229.34 M)(200.72 M)(3.39 M)(3.05 M)(3.29 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations69.1 M198.93 M206.92 M678.96 M780.8 M842.44 M
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash(3.64 M)(6 M)(1.85 M)13.95 M16.04 M17.31 M
Share Based Compensation26.56 M38.23 M44.4 M65.11 M74.88 M80.79 M

Etsy Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Etsy or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Etsy stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Etsy stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.52
β
Beta against DOW0.90
σ
Overall volatility
3.81
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

Etsy Volatility Alert

Etsy Inc exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.83 and kurtosis of 1.51. However, we advise investors to further study Etsy Inc technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Etsy's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Etsy's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Etsy Implied Volatility

Etsy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Etsy Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Etsy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Etsy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Etsy's options are near their expiration.

Etsy Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Etsy's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Etsy's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Etsy and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Etsy or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Etsy's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Etsy by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Etsy to competition
FundamentalsEtsyPeer Average
Return On Equity80.06 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset11.37 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin21.55 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin24.47 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation22.23 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding126.78 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.70 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions91.31 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted9.07 M4.71 M
Price to Earning44.21 X28.72 X
Price to Book35.29 X9.51 X
Price to Sales8.47 X11.42 X
Revenue2.23 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.26 B27.38 B
EBITDA545.57 M3.9 B
Net Income480.49 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents816.83 M2.7 B
Cash per Share6.44 X5.01 X
Total Debt2.32 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity4.35 %48.70 %
Current Ratio2.29 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share4.22 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations604.76 M971.22 M
Short Ratio4.22 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share3.37 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth1.64 X4.89 X
Number of Employees2.34 K18.84 K
Beta1.55-0.15
Market Capitalization18.87 B19.03 B
Total Asset553.06 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings(233.4 M)9.33 B
Working Capital278.93 M1.48 B
Current Asset359.05 M9.34 B
   Exercise or conversion by Buckley Merilee of 908 shares of Etsy subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

About Etsy Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Etsy Inc? Buying financial instruments such as Etsy Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Etsy investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Accounts Payable26.32 M40.88 M36.79 M39.7 M
Receivables15.39 M22.61 M20.34 M18.98 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Etsy in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Beer and Liquor Thematic Idea Now

Beer and Liquor
Beer and Liquor Theme
Fama and French focuses on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. Beer and Liquor theme has 29 constituents.
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Continue to Etsy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Etsy Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Etsy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

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When running Etsy Inc price analysis, check to measure Etsy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Etsy is operating at the current time. Most of Etsy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Etsy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Etsy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Etsy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Etsy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Etsy. If investors know Etsy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Etsy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Etsy Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Etsy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Etsy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Etsy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Etsy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Etsy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Etsy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Etsy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Etsy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.