Carvana Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

CVNA -  USA Stock  

USD 137.85  3.10  2.20%

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Carvana Co Cl is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Carvana Co buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding CVNA positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Carvana Co's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.

Carvana Advice 

 
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The advice is provided from Carvana Co's buy-and-hold perspective. Continue to Carvana Co Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Carvana and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Carvana Co Cl.

Execute Carvana Co Buy or Sell Advice

The Carvana recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Carvana Co Cl. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Carvana Co Cl or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Carvana Co's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Carvana CoBuy Carvana Co
Cautious Hold

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Responds to the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

FrailDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Possible ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Carvana Co Cl has a Mean Deviation of 3.29, Standard Deviation of 4.73 and Variance of 22.36
Macroaxis provides advice on Carvana Co Cl to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Carvana Co Cl. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Carvana Co is not overpriced, please confirm all Carvana Co Cl fundamentals, including its price to earning, net income, book value per share, as well as the relationship between the revenue and total debt . Given that Carvana Co Cl has a number of shares shorted of 10.04 M, we suggest you to validate Carvana Co Cl market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Carvana Co Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Carvana Co Cl generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Carvana Co Cl has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 10.89 B. Net Loss for the year was (109.14 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 796.76 M.
Carvana Co Cl currently holds about 609 M in cash with (1.58 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.12.
Carvana Co Cl has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Stephen Palmer of tradable shares of Carvana Co subject to Rule 16b-3

Carvana Co current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Carvana analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Carvana analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price370.09
Target Median Price376.50
Target High Price470.00
Recommendation Mean2.20
Number Of Analyst Opinions22
Target Low Price225.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Carvana Co Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Carvana Co's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Carvana Co's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Carvana Co stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Carvana Co Cl price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Carvana Co returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Carvana Co stock.
Mean Return-1.02Value At Risk-8.72
Potential Upside4.78Standard Deviation4.73
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Carvana Co historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Carvana Co Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(78.49 M)(143.67 M)(230.54 M)(359.8 M)(323.82 M)(332.34 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion11.57 M23.54 M41.27 M73.79 M84.86 M91.56 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents137.67 M(98.41 M)29.75 M210.65 M242.25 M261.37 M
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares206.25 M173.08 M299.31 M1.06 B1.22 B1.32 B
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities111.86 M300.32 M721.15 M123.78 M142.34 M196.6 M
Net Cash Flow from Financing416.09 M466.26 M1.01 B1.16 B1.34 B1.45 B
Net Cash Flow from Investing(78.49 M)(150.34 M)(227.74 M)(345.93 M)(311.33 M)(319.53 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations(199.92 M)(414.34 M)(757.13 M)(608.41 M)(547.57 M)(561.98 M)
Share Based Compensation5.61 M24.09 M33.06 M25.09 M28.85 M23.76 M

Carvana Co Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Carvana Co or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Carvana Co stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Carvana stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.92
β
Beta against DOW1.49
σ
Overall volatility
4.85
Ir
Information ratio -0.2

Carvana Co Volatility Alert

Carvana Co Cl exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.42 and kurtosis of 3.0. However, we advise investors to further study Carvana Co Cl technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Carvana Co's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Carvana Co's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Carvana Co Implied Volatility

Carvana Co's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carvana Co Cl stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carvana Co's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carvana Co stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carvana Co's options are near their expiration.

Carvana Co Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Carvana Co's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Carvana Co's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Carvana Co and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Carvana Co or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Carvana Co's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Carvana Co by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Carvana Co to competition
FundamentalsCarvana CoPeer Average
Return On Equity(31.05) %(0.31) %
Return On Asset(1.52) %(0.14) %
Profit Margin(1.00) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(0.90) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation22.57 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding84.5 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders2.80 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions117.80 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted10.04 M4.71 M
Price to Earning(11.05) X28.72 X
Price to Book30.15 X9.51 X
Price to Sales2.21 X11.42 X
Revenue10.89 B9.43 B
Gross Profit796.76 M27.38 B
EBITDA(4.61 M)3.9 B
Net Income(109.14 M)570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents609 M2.7 B
Cash per Share7.12 X5.01 X
Total Debt3.95 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity5.58 %48.70 %
Current Ratio2.93 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share4.50 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations(1.58 B)971.22 M
Short Ratio5.51 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(1.38) X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth0.74 X4.89 X
Number of Employees10.4 K18.84 K
Beta2.3-0.15
Market Capitalization24.09 B19.03 B
Total Asset743.06 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings(187.85 M)9.33 B
Working Capital243.26 M1.48 B
Current Asset511.72 M9.34 B
   Acquisition by Stephen Palmer of tradable shares of Carvana Co subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Carvana Co Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Carvana . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution53145.34
Daily Balance Of Power(0.38)
Rate Of Daily Change0.98
Day Median Price140.7
Day Typical Price139.75
Market Facilitation Index0.0
Price Action Indicator(4.40)

About Carvana Co Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Carvana Co Cl? Buying financial instruments such as Carvana Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Carvana Co investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2017 2018 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables59.67 M138.32 M124.49 M134.32 M
Inventories227.45 M412.24 M371.02 M400.31 M

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In addition to having Carvana Co in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Large Value Theme
Funds or Etfs that invest in the undervalued stocks of large-sized companies. Large Value theme has 40 constituents.
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Continue to Carvana Co Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Carvana Co Cl information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carvana Co's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

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When running Carvana Co Cl price analysis, check to measure Carvana Co's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carvana Co is operating at the current time. Most of Carvana Co's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carvana Co's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carvana Co's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carvana Co to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Carvana Co's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carvana Co. If investors know Carvana will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carvana Co listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Carvana Co Cl is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carvana that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carvana Co's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carvana Co's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carvana Co's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carvana Co's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carvana Co's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Carvana Co value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carvana Co's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.