Commvault Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

CVLT
 Stock
  

USD 58.55  1.31  2.19%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your highly speculative risk level, our recommendation regarding Commvault Systems is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Commvault Systems buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding CVLT positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Commvault Systems' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Commvault Systems' buy-and-hold perspective. Continue to Commvault Systems Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Commvault and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Commvault Systems.

Execute Commvault Systems Buy or Sell Advice

The Commvault recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Commvault Systems. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Commvault Systems or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Commvault Systems' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Commvault SystemsBuy Commvault Systems
Strong Hold

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

Close to AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Responds to the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Commvault Systems has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0326, Jensen Alpha of (0.06), Total Risk Alpha of (0.11), Sortino Ratio of (0.005465) and Treynor Ratio of 0.0329
Our advice module provides unbiased investment recommendation that can be used to complement current average analyst sentiment on Commvault Systems. Our advice engine provides an advice for the firm potential to grow from the perspective of an investor's risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Commvault Systems is not overpriced, please confirm all Commvault Systems fundamentals, including its cash and equivalents, and the relationship between the price to book and cash flow from operations . Given that Commvault Systems has a number of shares shorted of 1.41 M, we suggest you to validate Commvault Systems market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Commvault Systems Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Commvault Systems has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.entrepreneur.com: 4 Stocks That Are Long-Term Winners - Entrepreneur

Commvault Systems current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Commvault analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Commvault analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price70.17
Target Median Price69.50
Target High Price80.00
Recommendation Mean2.50
Number Of Analyst Opinions6
Target Low Price63.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Commvault Systems Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Commvault Systems' historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Commvault Systems' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Commvault Systems stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Commvault Systems price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Commvault Systems returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Commvault Systems stock.
Mean Return0.06Value At Risk-4.83
Potential Upside3.71Standard Deviation2.90
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Commvault Systems historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Commvault Systems Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(7.05 M)(6.56 M)(3.2 M)(8.18 M)(3.91 M)(4.22 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion11.79 M12.06 M17.07 M15.88 M10.95 M11.75 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents1.29 M(2.79 M)(31.91 M)101.16 M(129.73 M)(133.14 M)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares(82.1 M)(90.71 M)(39.4 M)(74.74 M)(275.48 M)(282.73 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(82.1 M)(90.71 M)(39.4 M)(74.74 M)(276.09 M)(283.35 M)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(17.99 M)(5.26 M)(74 M)35.47 M(24.44 M)(26.37 M)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(10.94 M)1.3 M86.69 M43.65 M(4.14 M)(4.25 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations84.17 M110.18 M88.46 M123.95 M177.18 M157.68 M
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash17.22 M(17 M)(6.97 M)16.47 M(6.38 M)(6.55 M)
Share Based Compensation74.13 M80.49 M65.89 M84.83 M105.16 M88.22 M

Commvault Systems Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Commvault Systems or Technology sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Commvault Systems stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Commvault stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.06
β
Beta against DOW1.59
σ
Overall volatility
2.93
Ir
Information ratio -0.0065

Commvault Systems Volatility Alert

Commvault Systems shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. We advise investors to inspect Commvault Systems further and ensure that all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with the estimation of Commvault Systems future alpha. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Commvault Systems' stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Commvault Systems' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Commvault Systems Implied Volatility

Commvault Systems' implied volatility" href="/stock-options/CVLT/Commvault-Systems">Commvault Systems' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Commvault Systems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Commvault Systems' implied volatility" href="/stock-options/CVLT/Commvault-Systems">Commvault Systems' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Commvault Systems stock will not fluctuate a lot when Commvault Systems' options" href="/stock-options/CVLT/Commvault-Systems">Commvault Systems' options are near their expiration.

Commvault Systems Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Commvault Systems' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Commvault Systems' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Commvault Systems and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Commvault Systems or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Commvault Systems' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Commvault Systems by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Commvault Systems to competition
FundamentalsCommvault SystemsPeer Average
Return On Equity7.44 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset2.49 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin2.96 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin4.14 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation2.27 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding45.51 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders1.02 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions95.77 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted1.41 M4.71 M
Price to Earning112.51 X28.72 X
Price to Book8.60 X9.51 X
Price to Sales3.30 X11.42 X
Revenue784.15 M9.43 B
Gross Profit614.1 M27.38 B
EBITDA43.83 M3.9 B
Net Income23.24 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents258.71 M2.7 B
Cash per Share5.77 X5.01 X
Total Debt13.91 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.05 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.31 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share6.61 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations162.4 M971.22 M
Short Ratio4.84 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share0.50 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth2.12 X4.89 X
Number of Employees2.8 K18.84 K
Beta0.6-0.15
Market Capitalization2.59 B19.03 B
Total Asset714.57 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings(568.36 M)9.33 B
Working Capital252.41 M1.48 B
Current Asset517.38 M9.34 B
   Sale by Di Blasio Riccardo of 17182 shares of Commvault Systems [view details]

About Commvault Systems Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Commvault Systems? Buying financial instruments such as Commvault Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Commvault Systems investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Accounts Payable307 K374 K432 K443.37 K
Receivables146.99 M188.13 M194.24 M155.2 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Commvault Systems in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Health care services and providers including hospitals, clinics and nursing homes that hope to benefit from Obamacare program. The Obamacare theme has 37 constituents at this time.
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Continue to Commvault Systems Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Commvault Systems information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Commvault Systems' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

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Is Commvault Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commvault Systems. If investors know Commvault will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commvault Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.73
Market Capitalization
2.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.079
Return On Assets
0.0249
Return On Equity
0.0744
The market value of Commvault Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commvault that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commvault Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commvault Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commvault Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commvault Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commvault Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Commvault Systems value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commvault Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.