Commerce Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

CBSH
 Stock
  

USD 70.66  0.44  0.62%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your way above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Commerce Bancshares is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Commerce Bancshares buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding CBSH positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Commerce Bancshares' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Commerce Bancshares' buy-and-hold perspective. Continue to Commerce Bancshares Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Commerce and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Commerce Bancshares.

Execute Commerce Bancshares Buy or Sell Advice

The Commerce recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Commerce Bancshares. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Commerce Bancshares or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Commerce Bancshares' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Commerce BancsharesBuy Commerce Bancshares
Hold

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Financial Strenth (F Score)

Details

Financial Leverage

Inapplicable
Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon Commerce Bancshares has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1602, Jensen Alpha of 0.1616, Total Risk Alpha of 0.0386, Sortino Ratio of 0.0325 and Treynor Ratio of (2.84)
Macroaxis provides unbiased investment recommendation on Commerce Bancshares that should be used to complement current analysts and expert consensus on Commerce Bancshares. Our trade advice engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investors' current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Commerce Bancshares is not overpriced, please confirm all Commerce Bancshares fundamentals, including its number of shares shorted, cash and equivalents, price to earnings to growth, as well as the relationship between the revenue and book value per share . Given that Commerce Bancshares has a price to earning of 20.35 X, we suggest you to validate Commerce Bancshares market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Commerce Bancshares Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Commerce Bancshares has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

Commerce Bancshares Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Commerce Bancshares' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Commerce Bancshares stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Commerce Bancshares price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Commerce Bancshares returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Commerce Bancshares.
Mean Return0.17Value At Risk-2.06
Potential Upside2.83Standard Deviation1.56
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Commerce Bancshares historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Commerce Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Commerce Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commerce Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Commerce Bancshares' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Commerce Bancshares' securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Zurich Insurance Group LtdCommon Shares43.6 K2.9 M
Zurich Insurance Group LtdCommon Shares101.2 K6.6 M
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares13.3 K882 K
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares13.3 K876 K
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares14.3 KM
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares13.5 K925 K
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares10.7 K748 K
Note, although Commerce Bancshares' institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Commerce Bancshares Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(27.63 M)(19.87 M)(40.54 M)(31.26 M)(47.86 M)(49.12 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion39.73 M38.68 M41.15 M43.77 M44.87 M41.46 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(277.29 M)684.89 M(301.43 M)1.3 B2.09 B2.25 B
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares(17.78 M)(75.24 M)(284.91 M)(54.17 M)(129.38 M)(139.59 M)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities(317.06 M)456.19 M(112.01 M)246 M936.34 M1.01 B
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(91.62 M)(100.24 M)(113.47 M)(120.82 M)(122.69 M)(132.38 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(924.54 M)223.25 M(84.06 M)6.07 B3.57 B3.86 B
Net Cash Flow from Investing220.72 M(91.02 M)(730.16 M)(5.39 B)(2.08 B)(2.25 B)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals248.35 M(71.16 M)(689.62 M)(5.36 B)(2.03 B)(2.2 B)
Net Cash Flow from Operations433.23 M552.66 M512.79 M623.99 M597.72 M511.97 M
Share Based Compensation12.11 M12.84 M13.85 M14.91 M15.41 M13.89 M

Commerce Bancshares Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Commerce Bancshares or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Commerce Bancshares' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Commerce stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.16
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.05
σ
Overall volatility
1.56
Ir
Information ratio 0.0272

Commerce Bancshares Volatility Alert

Commerce Bancshares has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.62 and kurtosis of 0.47. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Commerce Bancshares to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Commerce Bancshares' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Commerce Bancshares' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Commerce Bancshares Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Commerce Bancshares' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Commerce Bancshares' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Commerce Bancshares and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Commerce Bancshares or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Commerce Bancshares' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Commerce Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Commerce Bancshares to competition
FundamentalsCommerce BancsharesPeer Average
Return On Equity0.16 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset0.0144 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin0.33 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.42 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation6.7 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding119.35 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders2.66 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions70.05 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted2.77 M4.71 M
Price to Earning20.35 X28.72 X
Price to Book3.71 X9.51 X
Price to Sales6.18 X11.42 X
Revenue1.43 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.49 B27.38 B
EBITDA734.21 M3.9 B
Net Income530.76 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents2.32 B2.7 B
Cash per Share19.40 X5.01 X
Total Debt12.56 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.044 %48.70 %
Book Value Per Share19.66 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations597.72 M971.22 M
Short Ratio7.60 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share3.89 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth3.58 X4.89 X
Target Price71.33
Number of Employees4.59 K18.84 K
Beta0.77-0.15
Market Capitalization8.94 B19.03 B
Total Asset36.69 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings274.26 M9.33 B
Z Score1.88.72
Annual Yield0.0145 %
   Acquisition by Kimberly Walker of 190 shares of Commerce Bancshares subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Commerce Bancshares Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Commerce . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Commerce Bancshares Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Commerce Bancshares? Buying financial instruments such as Commerce Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Cash and Equivalents915.63 M2.22 B4.32 B4.66 B
Total Assets26.07 B32.92 B36.69 B30 B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Commerce Bancshares in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Macroaxis Picks Thematic Idea Now

Macroaxis Picks
Macroaxis Picks Theme
Daily selected watch list of stocks of large companies handpicked by Macroaxis Team based on their diversification potential. The Macroaxis Picks theme has 47 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Macroaxis Picks Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
View All  Next Launch
Continue to Commerce Bancshares Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Commerce Bancshares price analysis, check to measure Commerce Bancshares' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commerce Bancshares is operating at the current time. Most of Commerce Bancshares' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commerce Bancshares' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commerce Bancshares to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Go
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go
Portfolio Comparator
Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account
Go
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Go
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Go
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Go
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Go
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Go
Is Commerce Bancshares' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commerce Bancshares. If investors know Commerce will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commerce Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Commerce Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commerce that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commerce Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commerce Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commerce Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commerce Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commerce Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Commerce Bancshares value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commerce Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.