Big Lots Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

BIG -  USA Stock  

USD 27.54  1.77  6.04%

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Big Lots is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Big Lots buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Big Lots positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Big Lots' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
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The advice is provided from Big Lots' buy-and-hold perspective. Continue to Big Lots Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Big Lots and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Big Lots.

Execute Big Lots Buy or Sell Advice

The Big Lots recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Big Lots. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Big Lots or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Big Lots' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Big LotsBuy Big Lots
Hold

Volatility

Not too volatileDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Actively responds to the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

SellDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

StrongDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Big Lots has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09), Jensen Alpha of (0.008629), Total Risk Alpha of 0.2331 and Treynor Ratio of (0.17)
Our investment recommendation module complements current analysts and expert consensus on Big Lots. It analyzes the firm potential to grow using all fundamental, technical, and market related data available at the time. To make sure Big Lots is not overpriced, please confirm all Big Lots fundamentals, including its shares outstanding, price to sales, cash per share, as well as the relationship between the number of shares shorted and ebitda . Given that Big Lots has a price to earning of 4.51 X, we suggest you to validate Big Lots market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Big Lots Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Big Lots generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Big Lots has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Big Lots has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Do Insiders Own Lots Of Shares In Global Ship Lease, Inc. - Yahoo Finance

Big Lots current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Big Lots analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Big Lots analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price39.25
Target Median Price37.00
Target High Price50.00
Recommendation Mean3.20
Number Of Analyst Opinions8
Target Low Price31.00
Average Consensus Sell
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Big Lots Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Big Lots' historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Big Lots' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Big Lots stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Big Lots price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Big Lots returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Big Lots stock.
Mean Return-0.33Value At Risk-6.25
Potential Upside7.81Standard Deviation4.57
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Big Lots historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Big Lots Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Big Lots or Consumer Defensive sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Big Lots stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Big Lots stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.0086
β
Beta against DOW1.96
σ
Overall volatility
4.60
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Big Lots Volatility Alert

Big Lots exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.56 and kurtosis of 1.78. However, we advise investors to further study Big Lots technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Big Lots' stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Big Lots' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Big Lots Implied Volatility

Big Lots' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Big Lots stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Big Lots' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Big Lots stock will not fluctuate a lot when Big Lots' options are near their expiration.

Big Lots Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Big Lots' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Big Lots' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Big Lots and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Big Lots or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Big Lots' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Big Lots by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Big Lots to competition
FundamentalsBig LotsPeer Average
Return On Equity15.56 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset3.86 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin2.89 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin6.33 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation2.65 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding30.54 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders2.57 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions118.40 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted6.89 M4.71 M
Price to Earning4.51 X28.72 X
Price to Book0.84 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.14 X11.42 X
Revenue6.15 B9.43 B
Gross Profit2.4 B27.38 B
EBITDA389.56 M3.9 B
Net Income177.78 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents53.72 M2.7 B
Cash per Share1.88 X5.01 X
Total Debt1.82 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity1.80 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.25 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share34.38 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations193.76 M971.22 M
Short Ratio6.87 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share6.43 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth(1.37) X4.89 X
Number of Employees10.5 K18.84 K
Beta2.21-0.15
Market Capitalization885.67 M19.03 B
Total Asset1.64 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings2.57 B9.33 B
Working Capital315.98 M1.48 B
Current Asset994.43 M9.34 B
   Payment of 848 shares by Gene Burt of Big Lots subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

About Big Lots Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Big Lots? Buying financial instruments such as Big Lots Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Big Lots investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2014 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Accounts Payable378.24 M398.43 M358.93 M342.9 M
Inventories921.27 M940.29 M851.67 M813.72 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Big Lots in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Stores Thematic Idea Now

Stores
Stores Theme
Companies providing different types of retail and wholesale services. The Stores theme has 30 constituents.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Stores Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
View All  Next Launch Stores
Continue to Big Lots Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Big Lots information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Big Lots' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fund Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.

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Is Big Lots' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Big Lots. If investors know Big Lots will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Big Lots listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Big Lots is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Big Lots that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Big Lots' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Big Lots' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Big Lots' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Big Lots' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Big Lots' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Big Lots value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Big Lots' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.