Alibaba Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

BABA -  USA Stock  

USD 87.31  4.68  5.09%

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your slightly conservative level of risk, our recommendation regarding Alibaba Group Holding is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Alibaba Group buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding BABA positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Alibaba Group's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
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The advice is provided from Alibaba Group's buy-and-hold perspective. Continue to Alibaba Group Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Alibaba and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Alibaba Group Holding.

Execute Alibaba Group Buy or Sell Advice

The Alibaba recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Alibaba Group Holding. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Alibaba Group Holding or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Alibaba Group's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Alibaba GroupBuy Alibaba Group
Cautious Hold

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Responds to the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

StrongDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Alibaba Group Holding has a Mean Deviation of 3.66, Standard Deviation of 6.17 and Variance of 38.05
Macroaxis provides advice on Alibaba Group Holding to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Alibaba Group Holding. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Alibaba Group is not overpriced, please confirm all Alibaba Group Holding fundamentals, including its shares outstanding, price to earning, gross profit, as well as the relationship between the shares owned by institutions and price to sales . Given that Alibaba Group Holding has a number of shares shorted of 54.87 M, we suggest you to validate Alibaba Group Holding market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Alibaba Group Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Alibaba Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Alibaba Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Alibaba Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Top Stock Reports for Alibaba, McDonalds Advanced Micro Devices - Nasdaq

Alibaba Group current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Alibaba analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Alibaba analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price208.75
Target Median Price199.56
Target High Price314.31
Recommendation Mean2.00
Number Of Analyst Opinions51
Target Low Price129.71
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Alibaba Group Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Alibaba Group's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Alibaba Group's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Alibaba Group stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Alibaba Group Holding price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Alibaba Group returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Alibaba Group stock.
Mean Return-0.34Value At Risk-6.68
Potential Upside7.90Standard Deviation6.17
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Alibaba Group historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Alibaba Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Alibaba Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alibaba Group Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Alibaba Group's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Alibaba Group's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Goldman Sachs Group IncCommon Shares22.7 M2.5 B
Susquehanna International Group LlpCall Options18.2 MB
Primecap Management CoCommon Shares17.4 M1.9 B
Goldman Sachs Group IncPut Options17 M1.8 B
Fisher Asset Management LlcCommon Shares14.4 M1.6 B
Hsbc Holdings Plc 1Common Shares13.6 M1.5 B
Price T Rowe Associates IncCommon Shares13.3 M1.4 B
E Fund Management Co LtdCommon Shares12.2 M1.3 B
Dodge CoxCommon Shares11.9 M1.3 B
Note, although Alibaba Group's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Alibaba Group Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(19.63 B)(49.64 B)(32.74 B)(42.82 B)(38.53 B)(39.55 B)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion8.79 B14.96 B20.52 B26.39 B30.35 B32.74 B
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents56.34 B(4.23 B)147.49 B10.49 B12.06 B12.38 B
Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals(542 M)(35.44 B)(14.64 B)(19.26 B)(17.34 B)(18.71 B)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares399 M(10.52 B)91.51 B(598 M)(687.7 M)(705.8 M)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities33.34 B(4.23 B)(16.02 B)31.35 B28.21 B30.44 B
Net Cash Flow from Financing20.36 B(7.39 B)70.85 B30.08 B34.59 B31.34 B
Net Cash Flow from Investing(83.76 B)(151.06 B)(108.07 B)(244.19 B)(219.77 B)(225.56 B)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(52.8 B)(65.96 B)(60.5 B)(181.31 B)(163.18 B)(167.48 B)
Net Cash Flow from Operations125.81 B150.97 B180.61 B231.79 B266.55 B287.6 B
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash(6.07 B)3.25 B4.1 B(7.19 B)(6.47 B)(6.64 B)
Share Based Compensation20.07 B37.49 B31.74 B50.12 B57.64 B62.19 B

Alibaba Group Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alibaba Group or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alibaba Group stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alibaba stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.13
β
Beta against DOW1.56
σ
Overall volatility
6.28
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Alibaba Group Volatility Alert

Alibaba Group Holding is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Investors should scrutinize Alibaba Group Holding independently to ensure intended market timing strategies are aligned with expectations about Alibaba Group volatility. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alibaba Group's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alibaba Group's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Alibaba Group Implied Volatility

Alibaba Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alibaba Group Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alibaba Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alibaba Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alibaba Group's options are near their expiration.

Alibaba Group Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Alibaba Group's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Alibaba Group's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Alibaba Group and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Alibaba Group or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Alibaba Group's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alibaba Group by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Alibaba Group to competition
FundamentalsAlibaba GroupPeer Average
Return On Equity11.25 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset4.24 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin15.31 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin19.15 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation181.3 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding2.71 B571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders26.22 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions23.89 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted54.87 M4.71 M
Price to Earning12.36 X28.72 X
Price to Book0.25 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.29 X11.42 X
Revenue814.91 B9.43 B
Gross Profit297.77 B27.38 B
EBITDA156.05 B3.9 B
Net Income124.46 B570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents459.2 B2.7 B
Cash per Share170.38 X5.01 X
Total Debt183.16 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.17 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.64 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share357.23 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations196.82 B971.22 M
Short Ratio2.01 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share7.12 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth85.06 X4.89 X
Number of Employees258.58 K18.84 K
Beta0.92-0.15
Market Capitalization239.26 B19.03 B
Total Asset364.45 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings319.98 B9.33 B
Working Capital82.03 B1.48 B
Current Asset134.07 B9.34 B

Alibaba Group Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Alibaba . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution960025.0
Daily Balance Of Power(1.01)
Rate Of Daily Change0.95
Day Median Price89.32
Day Typical Price88.65
Price Action Indicator(4.35)

About Alibaba Group Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Alibaba Group Holding? Buying financial instruments such as Alibaba Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Alibaba Group investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Current Assets462.92 B643.36 B739.86 B798.27 B
Total Assets1,312.98 B1,690.22 B1,943.75 B2,097.2 B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Alibaba Group in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Energy Thematic Idea Now

Energy
Energy Theme
Funds or Etfs investing in energy sector, natural resources, and ecology. The Energy theme has 40 constituents.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Energy Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Continue to Alibaba Group Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Alibaba Group Holding information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alibaba Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

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Is Alibaba Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alibaba Group. If investors know Alibaba will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alibaba Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alibaba Group Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alibaba that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alibaba Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alibaba Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alibaba Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alibaba Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alibaba Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alibaba Group value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alibaba Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.