AeroVironment Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

AVAV
 Stock
  

USD 92.68  1.27  1.39%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding AeroVironment is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides AeroVironment buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AVAV positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of AeroVironment's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from AeroVironment's buy-and-hold perspective. Please continue to AeroVironment Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as AeroVironment and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards AeroVironment.

Execute AeroVironment Buy or Sell Advice

The AeroVironment recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on AeroVironment. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in AeroVironment or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute AeroVironment's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell AeroVironmentBuy AeroVironment
Cautious Hold

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Financial Strenth (F Score)

Details

Financial Leverage

Inapplicable
Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon AeroVironment has a Mean Deviation of 2.59, Semi Deviation of 2.76, Standard Deviation of 3.69, Variance of 13.63, Downside Variance of 8.19 and Semi Variance of 7.64
Macroaxis provides advice on AeroVironment to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on AeroVironment. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure AeroVironment is not overpriced, please confirm all AeroVironment fundamentals, including its book value per share, retained earnings, and the relationship between the cash and equivalents and target price . Given that AeroVironment has a price to earning of 71.89 X, we suggest you to validate AeroVironment market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

AeroVironment Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

AeroVironment has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 445.73 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.18 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 141.24 M.
AeroVironment currently holds about 105.84 M in cash with (9.62 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.27.
Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: The Best Aerospace Defense Stocks to Invest in Right Now - Best Stocks

AeroVironment Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of AeroVironment's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of AeroVironment's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of AeroVironment stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use AeroVironment price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of AeroVironment returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for AeroVironment.
Mean Return0.1Value At Risk-4.99
Potential Upside5.29Standard Deviation3.69
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of AeroVironment historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

AeroVironment Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as AeroVironment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AeroVironment backward and forwards among themselves. AeroVironment's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase AeroVironment's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares3.1 K262 K
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares3.1 K259 K
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares3.1 K296 K
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares3.1 K195 K
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares2.4 K211 K
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares2.4 K245 K
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares2.4 K284 K
Note, although AeroVironment's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

AeroVironment Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(9.56 M)(8.9 M)(11.14 M)(11.26 M)(22.29 M)(22.88 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion5.98 M7.67 M14.46 M24.41 M67.64 M72.98 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents63.61 M29.19 M82.43 M(98.08 M)(79.83 M)(81.93 M)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares2.71 M71 K100 K1.52 M2.78 M2.34 M
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities(390 K)(288 K)(161 K)196.12 M(10.29 M)(10.56 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing2.02 M(1.18 M)(1.83 M)194.16 M(16.61 M)(17.04 M)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(6.4 M)11.55 M59.17 M(378.77 M)(52.29 M)(56.42 M)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals3.17 M(11.55 M)88.95 M18.11 M5.08 M5.77 M
Net Cash Flow from Operations70.44 M26.95 M25.1 M86.53 M(9.62 M)(9.87 M)
Share Based Compensation4.96 M6.99 M6.23 M6.93 M5.39 M5.8 M

AeroVironment Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to AeroVironment or Aerospace & Defense sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that AeroVironment's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a AeroVironment stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.41
σ
Overall volatility
3.63
Ir
Information ratio -0.0066

AeroVironment Volatility Alert

AeroVironment currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of -0.01 and Jensen Alpha of -0.07. However, we advise investors to further question AeroVironment expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure AeroVironment's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact AeroVironment's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

AeroVironment Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing AeroVironment's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze AeroVironment's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between AeroVironment and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as AeroVironment or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of AeroVironment's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AeroVironment by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare AeroVironment to competition
FundamentalsAeroVironmentPeer Average
Return On Equity0.0022 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset(0.002) %(0.14) %
Profit Margin0.0031 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(0.0063) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation2.42 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding24.99 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders1.30 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions91.14 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted1.09 M4.71 M
Price to Earning71.89 X28.72 X
Price to Book3.85 X9.51 X
Price to Sales5.04 X11.42 X
Revenue445.73 M9.43 B
Gross Profit141.24 M27.38 B
EBITDA51.71 M3.9 B
Net Income(4.18 M)570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents105.84 M2.7 B
Cash per Share4.27 X5.01 X
Total Debt177.84 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.35 %48.70 %
Current Ratio3.73 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share24.18 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations(9.62 M)971.22 M
Short Ratio6.33 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share0.06 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth1.72 X4.89 X
Target Price99.29
Number of Employees1.21 K18.84 K
Beta0.54-0.15
Market Capitalization2.28 B19.03 B
Total Asset914.2 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings294 M9.33 B
Working Capital303.36 M1.48 B
   Exercise or conversion by Charles Burbage of 25000 shares of Aerovironment subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

AeroVironment Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as AeroVironment . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About AeroVironment Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell AeroVironment? Buying financial instruments such as AeroVironment Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables149.5 M134.28 M164.36 M177.34 M
Inventories45.53 M71.65 M90.63 M97.78 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having AeroVironment in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Run SRI Sustainable Growth Thematic Idea Now

SRI Sustainable Growth
SRI Sustainable Growth Theme
Socially responsible investments that include companies making a positive, sustainable or social impact and exclude those making a negative impact. The SRI Sustainable Growth theme has 46 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize SRI Sustainable Growth Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Please continue to AeroVironment Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the AeroVironment information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AeroVironment's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

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Is AeroVironment's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AeroVironment. If investors know AeroVironment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AeroVironment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.36) 
Market Capitalization
2.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.074
Return On Assets
(0.002) 
Return On Equity
0.0022
The market value of AeroVironment is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AeroVironment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AeroVironment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AeroVironment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AeroVironment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AeroVironment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AeroVironment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AeroVironment value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AeroVironment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.