Atmos Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

ATO
 Stock
  

USD 110.75  1.51  1.38%   

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Atmos Energy Corp is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Atmos Energy buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ATO positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Atmos Energy's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
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The advice is provided from Atmos Energy's buy-and-hold perspective. Please continue to Atmos Energy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Atmos and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Atmos Energy Corp.

Execute Atmos Energy Buy or Sell Advice

The Atmos recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Atmos Energy Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Atmos Energy Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Atmos Energy's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Atmos EnergyBuy Atmos Energy
Strong Buy

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Follows the market closelyDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

PoorDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Atmos Energy Corp has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.05), Jensen Alpha of 0.0382, Total Risk Alpha of 0.0797 and Treynor Ratio of (0.09)
Macroaxis provides advice on Atmos Energy Corp to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Atmos Energy Corp. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Atmos Energy is not overpriced, please confirm all Atmos Energy Corp fundamentals, including its debt to equity, total asset, and the relationship between the ebitda and earnings per share . Given that Atmos Energy Corp has a price to earning of 20.64 X, we suggest you to validate Atmos Energy Corp market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Atmos Energy Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Atmos Energy Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has 7.98 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.96, which is OK given its current industry classification. Atmos Energy Corp has a current ratio of 0.94, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Atmos Energy until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Atmos Energy's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Atmos Energy Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Atmos to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Atmos Energy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Atmos Energy Corp has about 325.87 M in cash with (1.18 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.41.
Atmos Energy Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 88.0% of Atmos Energy shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Ale John C of 1000 shares of Atmos Energy subject to Rule 16b-3

Atmos Energy current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Atmos analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Atmos analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price125.63
Target Median Price128.50
Target High Price140.00
Recommendation Mean2.40
Number Of Analyst Opinions8
Target Low Price107.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Atmos Energy Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Atmos Energy's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Atmos Energy's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Atmos Energy stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Atmos Energy Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Atmos Energy returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Atmos Energy stock.
Mean Return-0.05Value At Risk-1.97
Potential Upside2.06Standard Deviation1.30
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Atmos Energy historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Atmos Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Atmos Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Atmos Energy Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Atmos Energy's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Atmos Energy's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Vanguard Group IncCommon Shares17 MB
Blackrock IncCommon Shares13.5 M1.6 B
State Street CorpCommon Shares10.8 M1.3 B
Aristotle Capital Management LlcCommon Shares10.1 M1.2 B
Gqg Partners LlcCommon Shares4.3 M514.9 M
Deutsche Bank AgCommon Shares4.3 M511.5 M
American Century Companies IncCommon SharesM472.8 M
Note, although Atmos Energy's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Atmos Energy Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(1.47 B)(1.69 B)(1.94 B)(1.97 B)(1.77 B)(1.91 B)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion361.08 M391.46 M429.83 M477.98 M549.67 M474.46 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(12.64 M)10.78 M(3.74 M)95.92 M110.3 M119.01 M
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares414.65 M713.43 M643.85 M622.51 M715.88 M772.4 M
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities128.03 M348.1 M526.8 M2.78 B3.2 B3.45 B
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(214.91 M)(245.72 M)(282.44 M)(323.9 M)(291.51 M)(314.53 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing326.27 M725.67 M883.78 M3.14 B3.62 B3.9 B
Net Cash Flow from Investing(1.46 B)(1.68 B)(1.93 B)(1.96 B)(1.77 B)(1.91 B)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(8.32 M)(2.78 M)491 K(6.07 M)(5.46 M)(5.9 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations1.12 B968.77 M1.04 B(1.08 B)(975.83 M)(1 B)
Share Based Compensation12.86 M11.12 M9.58 M11.26 M10.13 M11.19 M

Atmos Energy Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Atmos Energy or Utilities sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Atmos Energy stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Atmos stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.038169
β
Beta against DOW0.64
σ
Overall volatility
1.30
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Atmos Energy Volatility Alert

Atmos Energy Corp exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.47 and kurtosis of 0.89. However, we advise investors to further study Atmos Energy Corp technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Atmos Energy's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Atmos Energy's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Atmos Energy Implied Volatility

Atmos Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Atmos Energy Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Atmos Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Atmos Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Atmos Energy's options are near their expiration.

Atmos Energy Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Atmos Energy's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Atmos Energy's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Atmos Energy and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Atmos Energy or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Atmos Energy's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Atmos Energy by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Atmos Energy to competition
FundamentalsAtmos EnergyPeer Average
Return On Equity8.99 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset2.93 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin19.88 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin38.76 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation23.01 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding132.71 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.80 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions87.55 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted3.51 M4.71 M
Price to Earning20.64 X28.72 X
Price to Book1.77 X9.51 X
Price to Sales4.00 X11.42 X
Revenue3.51 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.7 B27.38 B
EBITDA1.36 B3.9 B
Net Income696.61 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents325.87 M2.7 B
Cash per Share2.41 X5.01 X
Total Debt7.98 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.96 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.96 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share59.71 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations(1.18 B)971.22 M
Short Ratio3.68 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share5.12 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth2.61 X4.89 X
Number of Employees4.68 K18.84 K
Beta0.47-0.15
Market Capitalization14.02 B19.03 B
Total Asset10.01 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings2.67 B9.33 B
Working Capital(1.11 B)1.48 B
Current Asset681.69 M9.34 B
   Acquisition by Ale John C of 1000 shares of Atmos Energy subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Atmos Energy Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Atmos . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution9465.21
Daily Balance Of Power0.726
Rate Of Daily Change1.01
Day Median Price109.93
Day Typical Price110.2
Market Facilitation Index0.0
Price Action Indicator1.58

About Atmos Energy Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Atmos Energy Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Atmos Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Atmos Energy investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables230.59 M342.97 M394.41 M367.11 M
Inventories118.78 M193.7 M222.75 M248.17 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Atmos Energy in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Personal Services
Personal Services Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Personal Services theme has 61 constituents.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Personal Services Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Please continue to Atmos Energy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Atmos Energy Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Atmos Energy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

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Is Atmos Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Atmos Energy. If investors know Atmos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Atmos Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.032
Market Capitalization
15.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.25
Return On Assets
0.027
Return On Equity
0.0863
The market value of Atmos Energy Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Atmos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Atmos Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Atmos Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Atmos Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Atmos Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Atmos Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Atmos Energy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Atmos Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.