Blue Apron Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

APRN -  USA Stock  

USD 7.90  0.35  4.64%

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Blue Apron Holdings is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Blue Apron buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding APRN positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Blue Apron's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.

Blue Apron Advice 

 
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The advice is provided from Blue Apron's buy-and-hold perspective. Please continue to Blue Apron Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Blue Apron and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Blue Apron Holdings.

Execute Blue Apron Buy or Sell Advice

The Blue Apron recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Blue Apron Holdings. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Blue Apron Holdings or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Blue Apron's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Blue ApronBuy Blue Apron
Hold

Volatility

Slightly riskyDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Follows the market closelyDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

FrailDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Blue Apron Holdings has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0163, Jensen Alpha of 0.0748, Total Risk Alpha of 0.4333, Sortino Ratio of 0.0174 and Treynor Ratio of 0.0753
We provide trade advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on Blue Apron Holdings. Our dynamic recommendation engine uses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure Blue Apron is not overpriced, please confirm all Blue Apron Holdings fundamentals, including its revenue, cash flow from operations, current asset, as well as the relationship between the cash per share and beta . Given that Blue Apron Holdings has a number of shares shorted of 2.5 M, we suggest you to validate Blue Apron Holdings market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Blue Apron Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Blue Apron Holdings has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 65.9 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.94, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Blue Apron Holdings has a current ratio of 0.9, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 478.83 M. Net Loss for the year was (73.81 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 177.68 M.
Blue Apron Holdings currently holds about 35.28 M in cash with (28.72 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.47.
Blue Apron Holdings has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 43.0% of Blue Apron shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from www.marketscreener.com: Blue Apron to Release Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Results on February 10 - marketscreener.com

Blue Apron current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Blue Apron analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Blue Apron analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price15.00
Target Median Price15.00
Target High Price15.00
Recommendation Mean1.00
Number Of Analyst Opinions1
Target Low Price15.00
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Blue Apron Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Blue Apron's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Blue Apron's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Blue Apron stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Blue Apron Holdings price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Blue Apron returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Blue Apron stock.
Mean Return0.05Value At Risk-8.78
Potential Upside10.08Standard Deviation5.55
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Blue Apron historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Blue Apron Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Blue Apron is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Blue Apron Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Blue Apron's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Blue Apron's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Cutler Group LpCommon Shares27.9 K187 K
First Midwest Bank Trust DivisionCommon Shares26.1 K176 K
Cutler Group LpPut Options36 K64 K
Cutler Group LpCall Options67.6 K48 K
Soa Wealth Advisors LlcCommon Shares606K
Sargent Bickham Lagudis LlcCommon Shares1561000
Lindbrook Capital LlcCommon Shares66.00.0
Vanguard Group IncCommon Shares750.3 K5.5 M
River Mercantile Asset Management LlpCommon Shares683.6 KM
Note, although Blue Apron's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Blue Apron Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(124.11 M)(14.04 M)(4.48 M)(5.78 M)(6.64 M)(7.17 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion26.84 M34.52 M31.2 M24.5 M28.18 M25.48 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents145.45 M(133.58 M)(50.86 M)(601 K)(540.9 K)(555.13 K)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares279.02 M215 K51 K33.35 M38.36 M45.67 M
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities144.16 M(42.6 M)(29.97 M)(22.81 M)(20.53 M)(21.07 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing423.18 M(42.39 M)(29.92 M)10.55 M9.49 M9.74 M
Net Cash Flow from Investing(125.28 M)(14.29 M)(4.48 M)(5.78 M)(6.64 M)(7.17 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations(152.44 M)(76.9 M)(16.47 M)(5.37 M)(6.18 M)(6.67 M)
Share Based Compensation11.27 M16.32 M8.97 M8.46 M9.73 M9.48 M

Blue Apron Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Blue Apron or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Blue Apron stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Blue Apron stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.07
β
Beta against DOW0.56
σ
Overall volatility
5.60
Ir
Information ratio 0.0181

Blue Apron Volatility Alert

Blue Apron Holdings exhibits above-average semi-deviation for your current time horizon. We encourage investors to investigate Blue Apron Holdings individually to make sure intended market timing strategies and available technical indicagtors are consistent with their estimates about Blue Apron future systematic risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Blue Apron's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Blue Apron's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Blue Apron Implied Volatility

Blue Apron's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Blue Apron Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Blue Apron's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Blue Apron stock will not fluctuate a lot when Blue Apron's options are near their expiration.

Blue Apron Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Blue Apron's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Blue Apron's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Blue Apron and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Blue Apron or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Blue Apron's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Blue Apron by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Blue Apron to competition
FundamentalsBlue ApronPeer Average
Return On Equity(137.16) %(0.31) %
Return On Asset(16.31) %(0.14) %
Profit Margin(15.41) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(11.53) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation182.15 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding31.57 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders43.31 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions22.88 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted2.5 M4.71 M
Price to Earning(2.51) X28.72 X
Price to Book5.21 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.49 X11.42 X
Revenue478.83 M9.43 B
Gross Profit177.68 M27.38 B
EBITDA(32.75 M)3.9 B
Net Income(73.81 M)570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents35.28 M2.7 B
Cash per Share1.47 X5.01 X
Total Debt65.9 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity1.94 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.92 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share1.41 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations(28.72 M)971.22 M
Short Ratio1.86 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(3.77) X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth0.10 X4.89 X
Number of Employees1.43 K18.84 K
Beta-3.54-0.15
Market Capitalization232.36 M19.03 B
Total Asset289.6 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings(545.98 M)9.33 B
Working Capital116.41 M1.48 B
Current Asset193.72 M9.34 B
   Sale by Matthew Salzberg of 25795 shares of Blue Apron [view details]

Blue Apron Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Blue Apron . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution175729.0
Daily Balance Of Power0.5469
Rate Of Daily Change1.05
Day Median Price7.59
Day Typical Price7.69
Price Action Indicator0.49

About Blue Apron Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Blue Apron Holdings? Buying financial instruments such as Blue Apron Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Blue Apron investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Current Assets77.75 M86.07 M77.47 M102.27 M
Total Assets266.06 M215.34 M247.64 M303.28 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Blue Apron in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Healthcare
Healthcare Theme
Fama and French focuses on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. Healthcare theme has 61 constituents.
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Please continue to Blue Apron Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Blue Apron Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Blue Apron's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

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Is Blue Apron's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Apron. If investors know Blue Apron will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Apron listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Blue Apron Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue Apron that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Apron's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Apron's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Apron's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Apron's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Apron's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Blue Apron value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Apron's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.