Alamo Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

ALG
 Stock
  

USD 116.43  1.26  1.09%   

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your highly speculative risk level, our recommendation regarding Alamo Group is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Alamo buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Alamo positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Alamo's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
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The advice is provided from Alamo's buy-and-hold perspective. Please continue to Alamo Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Alamo and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Alamo Group.

Execute Alamo Buy or Sell Advice

The Alamo recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Alamo Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Alamo Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Alamo's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell AlamoBuy Alamo
Strong Buy

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

StrongDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Alamo Group has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.26), Jensen Alpha of (0.20), Total Risk Alpha of (0.13) and Treynor Ratio of (0.38)
Macroaxis provides advice on Alamo Group to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Alamo Group. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Alamo is not overpriced, please confirm all Alamo Group fundamentals, including its price to earning, net income, and the relationship between the shares owned by insiders and revenue . Given that Alamo Group has a price to earning of 20.40 X, we suggest you to validate Alamo Group market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Alamo Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Alamo Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Alamo Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Alamo exotic insider transaction detected

Alamo current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Alamo analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Alamo analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price159.33
Target Median Price162.00
Target High Price184.00
Recommendation Mean2.00
Number Of Analyst Opinions3
Target Low Price132.00
Average Consensus Hold
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Alamo Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Alamo's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Alamo's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Alamo stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Alamo Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Alamo returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Alamo stock.
Mean Return-0.35Value At Risk-3.85
Potential Upside3.10Standard Deviation1.91
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Alamo historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Alamo Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(12.72 M)(25.25 M)(29.06 M)(14.17 M)(15.6 M)(16.83 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion20.46 M23.11 M29.96 M43.84 M44.48 M36.39 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents8.58 M8.67 M8.27 M7.88 M(8.08 M)(8.29 M)
Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals(188 K)(38.55 M)(400.78 M)(17.8 M)(16.02 M)(17.28 M)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares2.23 M2.12 M(2.16 M)749 K(281 K)(303.18 K)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities(10.02 M)25.22 M357 M(158.87 M)(16.09 M)(16.52 M)
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(4.61 M)(5.12 M)(5.63 M)(6.12 M)(6.63 M)(7.15 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(12.4 M)22.21 M349.22 M(164.24 M)(23 M)(23.61 M)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(51.28 M)(25.36 M)(429.94 M)(14.17 M)(33.44 M)(36.08 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations70.8 M12.91 M88.81 M184.33 M49.67 M60.8 M
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash1.45 M(1.09 M)172 K1.96 M(1.31 M)(1.34 M)
Share Based Compensation1.87 M2.45 M3.27 M4.12 M5.99 M6.46 M

Alamo Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alamo or Industrials sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alamo stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alamo stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.2
β
Beta against DOW0.96
σ
Overall volatility
1.95
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Alamo Volatility Alert

Alamo Group exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.29 and kurtosis of 0.35. However, we advise investors to further study Alamo Group technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alamo's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alamo's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Alamo Implied Volatility

Alamo's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alamo Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alamo's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alamo stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alamo's options are near their expiration.

Alamo Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Alamo's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Alamo's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Alamo and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Alamo or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Alamo's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alamo by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Alamo to competition
FundamentalsAlamoPeer Average
Return On Equity11.97 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset6.28 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin6.01 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin12.10 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation1.75 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding11.92 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders2.34 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions91.81 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted146.76 K4.71 M
Price to Earning20.40 X28.72 X
Price to Book2.02 X9.51 X
Price to Sales1.06 X11.42 X
Revenue1.33 B9.43 B
Gross Profit334.51 M27.38 B
EBITDA161.42 M3.9 B
Net Income80.25 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents42.12 M2.7 B
Cash per Share3.53 X5.01 X
Total Debt286.45 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.41 %48.70 %
Current Ratio3.18 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share58.68 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations49.67 M971.22 M
Short Ratio3.14 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share5.81 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth2.20 X4.89 X
Number of Employees4.2 K18.84 K
Beta0.99-0.15
Market Capitalization1.41 B19.03 B
Total Asset603.5 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings431.78 M9.33 B
Working Capital277.86 M1.48 B
Current Asset362.89 M9.34 B
   Alamo exotic insider transaction detected [view details]

Alamo Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Alamo . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution1118.19
Daily Balance Of Power0.2993
Rate Of Daily Change1.01
Day Median Price115.21
Day Typical Price115.61
Market Facilitation Index1.0E-4
Price Action Indicator1.86

About Alamo Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Alamo Group? Buying financial instruments such as Alamo Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Alamo investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables237.84 M209.28 M237.97 M202.64 M
Inventories267.67 M229.97 M320.92 M346.25 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Alamo in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Financials Thematic Idea Now

Financials
Financials Theme
Companies that provide financial services to business or retail customers. The Financials theme has 20 constituents.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Financials Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
View All  Next Launch Financials
Please continue to Alamo Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Alamo Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alamo's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

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When running Alamo Group price analysis, check to measure Alamo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alamo is operating at the current time. Most of Alamo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alamo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alamo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alamo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alamo's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alamo. If investors know Alamo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alamo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alamo Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alamo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alamo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alamo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alamo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alamo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alamo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alamo value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alamo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.