Arbor Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

ABR
 Stock
  

USD 12.91  0.57  4.23%   

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Arbor Realty Trust is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Arbor Realty buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ABR positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Arbor Realty's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Arbor Realty's buy-and-hold perspective. Please continue to Arbor Realty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Arbor and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Arbor Realty Trust.

Execute Arbor Realty Buy or Sell Advice

The Arbor recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Arbor Realty Trust. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Arbor Realty Trust or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Arbor Realty's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Arbor RealtyBuy Arbor Realty
Hold

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon Arbor Realty Trust has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0178, Jensen Alpha of 0.0744, Total Risk Alpha of 0.1071, Sortino Ratio of 0.0239 and Treynor Ratio of 0.012
Our trade advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on Arbor Realty Trust and to analyze the company potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure Arbor Realty is not overpriced, please confirm all Arbor Realty Trust fundamentals, including its shares outstanding, gross profit, book value per share, as well as the relationship between the price to earning and cash per share . Given that Arbor Realty Trust has a price to earning of 9.57 X, we suggest you to validate Arbor Realty Trust market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Arbor Realty Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Arbor Realty Trust generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Arbor Realty Trust has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
On 31st of August 2022 Arbor Realty paid $ 0.39 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Payment of 3230 shares by Fred Weber of Arbor Realty subject to Rule 16b-3

Arbor Realty current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Arbor analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Arbor analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price19.00
Target Median Price19.00
Target High Price21.00
Recommendation Mean2.20
Number Of Analyst Opinions4
Target Low Price17.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Arbor Realty Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Arbor Realty's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Arbor Realty's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Arbor Realty stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Arbor Realty Trust price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Arbor Realty returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Arbor Realty.
Mean Return0.0248Value At Risk-3.65
Potential Upside2.75Standard Deviation2.17
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Arbor Realty historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Arbor Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Arbor Realty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arbor Realty Trust backward and forwards among themselves. Arbor Realty's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Arbor Realty's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Parallax Volatility Advisers LpDebt6.5 M642.3 M
Blackrock IncCommon Shares14.7 M193.2 M
Vanguard Group IncCommon Shares14.3 M187.7 M
State Street CorpCommon SharesM39.6 M
Geode Capital Management LlcCommon Shares2.8 M36.1 M
Hbk Investments L PPut Options1.9 M24.8 M
Northern Trust CorpCommon Shares1.8 M23.4 M
Wasatch Advisors IncCommon Shares1.7 M21.9 M
Morgan StanleyCommon Shares1.5 M19.1 M
Note, although Arbor Realty's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Arbor Realty Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Arbor Realty or Real Estate sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Arbor Realty's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Arbor stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.07
β
Beta against DOW1.23
σ
Overall volatility
2.11
Ir
Information ratio 0.0291

Arbor Realty Volatility Alert

Arbor Realty Trust currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.03 and Jensen Alpha of 0.07. However, we advise investors to further question Arbor Realty Trust expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Arbor Realty's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Arbor Realty's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Arbor Realty Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Arbor Realty's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Arbor Realty's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Arbor Realty and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Arbor Realty or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Arbor Realty's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arbor Realty by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Arbor Realty to competition
FundamentalsArbor RealtyPeer Average
Return On Equity15.63 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset2.86 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin52.85 %(1.27) %
Current Valuation17.58 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding150.51 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders2.39 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions43.27 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted6.06 M4.71 M
Price to Earning9.57 X28.72 X
Price to Book1.32 X9.51 X
Price to Sales3.09 X11.42 X
Revenue655.93 M9.43 B
Gross Profit615.21 M27.38 B
EBITDA34.34 M3.9 B
Net Income312.77 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents346.96 M2.7 B
Cash per Share2.04 X5.01 X
Total Debt14.33 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity4.92 %48.70 %
Current Ratio3.91 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share10.19 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations253.81 M971.22 M
Short Ratio2.15 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share1.41 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth1.29 X4.89 X
Number of Employees57918.84 K
Beta1.75-0.15
Market Capitalization2.03 B19.03 B
Total Asset1.83 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(65.73 M)9.33 B
Five Year Return8.94 %
Last Dividend Paid1.52
   Payment of 3230 shares by Fred Weber of Arbor Realty subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Arbor Realty Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Arbor . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Arbor Realty Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Arbor Realty Trust? Buying financial instruments such as Arbor Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Arbor Realty in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Investing Thematic Idea Now

Investing
Investing Theme
Companies involved in money management and investment banking services. The Investing theme has 40 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Investing Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
View All  Next Launch
Please continue to Arbor Realty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Arbor Realty Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arbor Realty's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for Arbor Stock analysis

When running Arbor Realty Trust price analysis, check to measure Arbor Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arbor Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Arbor Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arbor Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arbor Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arbor Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Go
Shere Portfolio
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Stock Screener
Find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Go
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Go
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Go
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Go
Fundamental Analysis
View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements
Go
Is Arbor Realty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arbor Realty. If investors know Arbor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arbor Realty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Arbor Realty Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arbor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arbor Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arbor Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arbor Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arbor Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arbor Realty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Arbor Realty value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arbor Realty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.