Alcoa Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

AA -  USA Stock  

USD 61.21  3.18  5.48%

Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Alcoa Corp is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Alcoa Corp buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AA positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Alcoa Corp's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.

Alcoa Advice 

The advice is provided from Alcoa Corp's buy-and-hold perspective. Please continue to Alcoa Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Alcoa and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Alcoa Corp.

Execute Alcoa Corp Buy or Sell Advice

The Alcoa recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Alcoa Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Alcoa Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Alcoa Corp's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Alcoa CorpBuy Alcoa Corp
Strong Hold


Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Under hypedDetails

Current Valuation


Odds of Distress


Economic Sensitivity

Actively responds to the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus


Financial Strenth (F Score)


Financial Leverage


Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Possible ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Alcoa Corp has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0683, Jensen Alpha of 0.3773, Total Risk Alpha of 0.5533, Sortino Ratio of 0.0922 and Treynor Ratio of 0.1341
Macroaxis provides unbiased investment recommendation on Alcoa Corp that should be used to complement current analysts and expert consensus on Alcoa Corp. Our trade advice engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investors' current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Alcoa Corp is not overpriced, please confirm all Alcoa Corp fundamentals, including its profit margin, shares owned by insiders, price to book, as well as the relationship between the current valuation and number of shares shorted . Given that Alcoa Corp has a price to earning of 14.05 X, we suggest you to validate Alcoa Corp market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Alcoa Corp Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Alcoa Corp has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Payment of 1336 shares by Elam Harden Sonya of Alcoa Corp subject to Rule 16b-3

Alcoa Corp current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Alcoa analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Alcoa analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price59.02
Target Median Price60.00
Target High Price66.00
Recommendation Mean1.80
Number Of Analyst Opinions12
Target Low Price50.30
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Alcoa Corp Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Alcoa Corp's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Alcoa Corp stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Alcoa Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Alcoa Corp returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Alcoa Corp stock.
Mean Return0.25Value At Risk-5.31
Potential Upside5.61Standard Deviation3.43
 Return Density 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Alcoa Corp historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Alcoa Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Alcoa Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alcoa Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Alcoa Corp's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Alcoa Corp's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Russell Investments Group LtdCommon Shares587.2 K35 M
Scout Investments IncCommon Shares339.8 K20.2 M
Hennessy Advisors IncCommon Shares276.3 K16.5 M
Retirement Systems Of AlabamaCommon Shares245 K14.6 M
Avitas Wealth Management LlcCommon Shares100.4 KM
New York State Teachers Retirement SystemCommon Shares98.9 K5.9 M
Jtc Employer Solutions Trustee LtdCommon Shares95.4 K5.7 M
Note, although Alcoa Corp's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Alcoa Corp Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(405 M)(399 M)(379 M)(353 M)(405.95 M)(438 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion752 M733 M713 M653 M587.7 M642.42 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents506 M(249 M)(233 M)727 M836.05 M902.05 M
Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals245 M1,000 K23 M198 M227.7 M183.53 M
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares43 M(27 M)2 M1,000 K900 K923.68 K
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities(32 M)425 M(7 M)738 M848.7 M915.7 M
Net Cash Flow from Financing749 M(506 M)(288 M)514 M462.6 M499.12 M
Net Cash Flow from Investing(226 M)(405 M)(468 M)(167 M)(192.05 M)(207.21 M)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(66 M)(7 M)(112 M)(12 M)(13.8 M)(14.89 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations1.22 B448 M686 M394 M354.6 M429.26 M
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash(38 M)13 M14 M(4 M)(16.1 M)(16.52 M)

Alcoa Corp Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alcoa Corp or Basic Materials sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alcoa Corp stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alcoa stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW1.80
Overall volatility
Information ratio 0.09

Alcoa Corp Volatility Alert

Alcoa Corp shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. We advise investors to inspect Alcoa Corp further and ensure that all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with the estimation of Alcoa Corp future alpha. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alcoa Corp's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alcoa Corp's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Alcoa Corp Implied Volatility

Alcoa Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alcoa Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alcoa Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alcoa Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alcoa Corp's options are near their expiration.

Alcoa Corp Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Alcoa Corp's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Alcoa Corp's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Alcoa Corp and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Alcoa Corp or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Alcoa Corp's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcoa Corp by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
 Better Than Average     
 Worse Than Average Compare Alcoa Corp to competition
FundamentalsAlcoa CorpPeer Average
Return On Equity18.24 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset6.80 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin7.29 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin19.78 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation12.73 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding187.1 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders1.57 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions77.43 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted11.11 M4.71 M
Price to Earning14.05 X28.72 X
Price to Book2.93 X9.51 X
Price to Sales1.01 X11.42 X
Revenue11.2 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.36 B27.38 B
EBITDA2.22 B3.9 B
Net Income817 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents1.45 B2.7 B
Cash per Share7.76 X5.01 X
Total Debt1.84 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.34 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.46 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share20.73 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations393 M971.22 M
Short Ratio1.52 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share4.32 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth0.05 X4.89 X
Number of Employees12.9 K18.84 K
Market Capitalization11.37 B19.03 B
Total Asset16.41 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(569.61 M)9.33 B
Working Capital162 M1.48 B
Current Asset2.57 B9.34 B
   Payment of 1336 shares by Elam Harden Sonya of Alcoa Corp subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

About Alcoa Corp Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Alcoa Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Alcoa Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Alcoa Corp investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables556 M500.4 M582.89 M
Inventories1.4 B1.26 B1.26 B

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Please continue to Alcoa Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

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Is Alcoa Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcoa Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.