Xunlei Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.38

XNET
 Stock
  

USD 1.38  0.02  1.43%   

Xunlei's future price is the expected price of Xunlei instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Xunlei Limited performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Xunlei's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Xunlei Limited. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Xunlei based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Xunlei Limited over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $1.0 is a CALL option contract on Xunlei's common stock with a strick price of 1.0 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 16 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $1.05. The implied volatility as of the 5th of October is 311.9256. View All Xunlei options

Closest to current price Xunlei long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Check out Xunlei Backtesting, Xunlei Valuation, Xunlei Correlation, Xunlei Hype Analysis, Xunlei Volatility, Xunlei History as well as Xunlei Performance. Please specify Xunlei time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Xunlei odds to be computed.

Xunlei Target Price Odds to finish over 1.38

The tendency of Xunlei Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 1.38 90 days 1.38 
over 95.79
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Xunlei to move above the current price in 90 days from now is over 95.79 (This Xunlei Limited probability density function shows the probability of Xunlei Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Xunlei has a beta of 0.86. This entails Xunlei Limited market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Xunlei is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Xunlei Limited is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Xunlei Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Xunlei

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xunlei Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Xunlei's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Xunlei in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.071.374.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.071.474.96
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Xunlei. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Xunlei's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Xunlei's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Xunlei Limited.

Xunlei Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Xunlei is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Xunlei's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Xunlei Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Xunlei within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.13
β
Beta against DOW0.86
σ
Overall volatility
0.11
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Xunlei Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Xunlei for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Xunlei Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Xunlei Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Xunlei Limited may become a speculative penny stock
Xunlei Limited has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 264.53 M. Net Loss for the year was (97 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 120.18 M.
Xunlei Limited currently holds about 269.94 M in cash with (13.91 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.0, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Roughly 12.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders
Latest headline from uk.finance.yahoo.com: While private equity firms own 38 percent of Xunlei Limited , individual investors are its largest shareholders with 46 percent ownership - Yahoo Finance UK

Xunlei Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Xunlei Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Xunlei's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Xunlei's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.83%
Float Shares36.33M
Shares Short Prior Month436.62k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day69.18k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month115.91k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Xunlei Technical Analysis

Xunlei's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Xunlei Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Xunlei Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Xunlei Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Xunlei Predictive Forecast Models

Xunlei time-series forecasting models is one of many Xunlei's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Xunlei's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Xunlei Limited

Checking the ongoing alerts about Xunlei for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Xunlei Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Xunlei Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Xunlei Limited may become a speculative penny stock
Xunlei Limited has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 264.53 M. Net Loss for the year was (97 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 120.18 M.
Xunlei Limited currently holds about 269.94 M in cash with (13.91 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.0, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Roughly 12.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders
Latest headline from uk.finance.yahoo.com: While private equity firms own 38 percent of Xunlei Limited , individual investors are its largest shareholders with 46 percent ownership - Yahoo Finance UK
Check out Xunlei Backtesting, Xunlei Valuation, Xunlei Correlation, Xunlei Hype Analysis, Xunlei Volatility, Xunlei History as well as Xunlei Performance. Note that the Xunlei Limited information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Xunlei's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

Complementary Tools for Xunlei Stock analysis

When running Xunlei Limited price analysis, check to measure Xunlei's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Xunlei is operating at the current time. Most of Xunlei's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Xunlei's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Xunlei's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Xunlei to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Xunlei's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xunlei. If investors know Xunlei will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Xunlei listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Xunlei Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Xunlei that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Xunlei's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Xunlei's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Xunlei's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Xunlei's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xunlei's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Xunlei value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Xunlei's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.