Weibo Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.57

WB
 Stock
  

USD 13.31  0.13  0.99%   

Weibo Corp's future price is the expected price of Weibo Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Weibo Corp ADR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Weibo Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Weibo Corp ADR. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Weibo Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Weibo Corp ADR over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-02 CALL at $13.0 is a CALL option contract on Weibo Corp's common stock with a strick price of 13.0 expiring on 2022-12-02. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-25 at 12:59:29 for $0.58 and, as of today, has 4 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.5, and an ask price of $0.65. The implied volatility as of the 28th of November is 71.7489. View All Weibo options

Closest to current price Weibo long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Check out Weibo Corp Backtesting, Weibo Corp Valuation, Weibo Corp Correlation, Weibo Corp Hype Analysis, Weibo Corp Volatility, Weibo Corp History as well as Weibo Corp Performance. Please specify Weibo Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Weibo Corp odds to be computed.

Weibo Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 16.57

The tendency of Weibo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 16.57  or more in 90 days
 13.31 90 days 16.57 
about 37.08
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Weibo Corp to move over $ 16.57  or more in 90 days from now is about 37.08 (This Weibo Corp ADR probability density function shows the probability of Weibo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Weibo Corp ADR price to stay between its current price of $ 13.31  and $ 16.57  at the end of the 90-day period is about 42.48 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Weibo Corp has a beta of 0.66. This entails as returns on the market go up, Weibo Corp average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Weibo Corp ADR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Weibo Corp ADR is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Weibo Corp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Weibo Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Weibo Corp ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Weibo Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Weibo Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.3313.1818.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.8622.6327.48
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
6.6111.4616.32
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
24.0052.6774.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Weibo Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Weibo Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Weibo Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Weibo Corp ADR.

Weibo Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Weibo Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Weibo Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Weibo Corp ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Weibo Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.48
β
Beta against DOW0.66
σ
Overall volatility
2.82
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Weibo Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Weibo Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Weibo Corp ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Weibo Corp ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Weibo Corp ADR has high historical volatility and very poor performance

Weibo Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Weibo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Weibo Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Weibo Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.69%
Float Shares70.78M
Shares Short Prior Month7.91M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day933.45k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month980.76k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022

Weibo Corp Technical Analysis

Weibo Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Weibo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Weibo Corp ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Weibo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Weibo Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Weibo Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many Weibo Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Weibo Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Weibo Corp ADR

Checking the ongoing alerts about Weibo Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Weibo Corp ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Weibo Corp ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Weibo Corp ADR has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Check out Weibo Corp Backtesting, Weibo Corp Valuation, Weibo Corp Correlation, Weibo Corp Hype Analysis, Weibo Corp Volatility, Weibo Corp History as well as Weibo Corp Performance. Note that the Weibo Corp ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Weibo Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for Weibo Stock analysis

When running Weibo Corp ADR price analysis, check to measure Weibo Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Weibo Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Weibo Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Weibo Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Weibo Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Weibo Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Weibo Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Weibo Corp. If investors know Weibo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Weibo Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.66) 
Market Capitalization
3.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.25) 
Return On Assets
0.0464
Return On Equity
0.012
The market value of Weibo Corp ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Weibo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Weibo Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Weibo Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Weibo Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Weibo Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Weibo Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Weibo Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Weibo Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.