Vertex Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.74

VTNR
 Stock
  

USD 5.74  0.33  5.44%   

Vertex Energy's future price is the expected price of Vertex Energy instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Vertex Energy performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Vertex Energy's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Vertex Energy. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Vertex Energy based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Vertex Energy over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $5.0 is a CALL option contract on Vertex Energy's common stock with a strick price of 5.0 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-23 at 15:58:28 for $0.97 and, as of today, has 25 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.95, and an ask price of $1.05. The implied volatility as of the 26th of September is 88.0851. View All Vertex options

Closest to current price Vertex long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at Vertex Energy Backtesting, Vertex Energy Valuation, Vertex Energy Correlation, Vertex Energy Hype Analysis, Vertex Energy Volatility, Vertex Energy History as well as Vertex Energy Performance. Please specify Vertex Energy time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Vertex Energy odds to be computed.

Vertex Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 5.74

The tendency of Vertex Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 5.74 90 days 5.74 
over 95.46
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vertex Energy to move above the current price in 90 days from now is over 95.46 (This Vertex Energy probability density function shows the probability of Vertex Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.45 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Vertex Energy will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Vertex Energy is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Vertex Energy Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Vertex Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vertex Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vertex Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vertex Energy in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.265.1612.84
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.449.1216.80
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.062.8110.49
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0019.5025.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vertex Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vertex Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vertex Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vertex Energy.

Vertex Energy Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vertex Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vertex Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vertex Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vertex Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.66
β
Beta against DOW1.45
σ
Overall volatility
2.30
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Vertex Energy Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vertex Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vertex Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Vertex Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Vertex Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 130.95 M. Net Loss for the year was (44.44 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.06 M.
Vertex Energy currently holds about 24.05 M in cash with (5.29 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.37.
Roughly 23.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Does Vertex Energy Have A Healthy Balance Sheet - Nasdaq

Vertex Energy Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vertex Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vertex Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vertex Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out19.75%
Short Percent Of Float22.32%
Float Shares50.46M
Shares Short Prior Month9.83M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.34M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.16M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Vertex Energy Technical Analysis

Vertex Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vertex Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vertex Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vertex Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Vertex Energy Predictive Forecast Models

Vertex Energy time-series forecasting models is one of many Vertex Energy's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Vertex Energy's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Vertex Energy

Checking the ongoing alerts about Vertex Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vertex Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Vertex Energy Alerts

Vertex Energy Alerts and Suggestions

Vertex Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Vertex Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 130.95 M. Net Loss for the year was (44.44 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.06 M.
Vertex Energy currently holds about 24.05 M in cash with (5.29 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.37.
Roughly 23.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Does Vertex Energy Have A Healthy Balance Sheet - Nasdaq
Also, please take a look at Vertex Energy Backtesting, Vertex Energy Valuation, Vertex Energy Correlation, Vertex Energy Hype Analysis, Vertex Energy Volatility, Vertex Energy History as well as Vertex Energy Performance. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Vertex Energy price analysis, check to measure Vertex Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vertex Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Vertex Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vertex Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vertex Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vertex Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Go
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Go
Fundamental Analysis
View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements
Go
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Go
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Is Vertex Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vertex Energy. If investors know Vertex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vertex Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Vertex Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vertex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vertex Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vertex Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vertex Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vertex Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vertex Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vertex Energy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vertex Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.