VANGUARD Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 189.72

VSTSX
 Fund
  

USD 189.72  5.84  2.99%   

VANGUARD TOTAL's future price is the expected price of VANGUARD TOTAL instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Also, please take a look at VANGUARD TOTAL Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, VANGUARD TOTAL Correlation, VANGUARD TOTAL Hype Analysis, VANGUARD TOTAL Volatility, VANGUARD TOTAL History as well as VANGUARD TOTAL Performance. Please specify VANGUARD TOTAL time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like VANGUARD TOTAL odds to be computed.

VANGUARD TOTAL Target Price Odds to finish over 189.72

The tendency of VANGUARD Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 189.72 90 days 189.72 
about 20.7
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VANGUARD TOTAL to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 20.7 (This VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK probability density function shows the probability of VANGUARD Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.11 . This entails VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, VANGUARD TOTAL is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   VANGUARD TOTAL Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for VANGUARD TOTAL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of VANGUARD TOTAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of VANGUARD TOTAL in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
193.84195.56197.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
191.88193.60215.12
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
195.17196.89198.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
178.47188.12197.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as VANGUARD TOTAL. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against VANGUARD TOTAL's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, VANGUARD TOTAL's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK.

VANGUARD TOTAL Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VANGUARD TOTAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VANGUARD TOTAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VANGUARD TOTAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.08
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.11
σ
Overall volatility
6.93
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

VANGUARD TOTAL Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of VANGUARD TOTAL for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund keeps 99.06% of its net assets in stocks

VANGUARD TOTAL Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of VANGUARD Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential VANGUARD TOTAL's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. VANGUARD TOTAL's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.80
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.46%

VANGUARD TOTAL Technical Analysis

VANGUARD TOTAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VANGUARD Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK. In general, you should focus on analyzing VANGUARD Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

VANGUARD TOTAL Predictive Forecast Models

VANGUARD TOTAL time-series forecasting models is one of many VANGUARD TOTAL's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary VANGUARD TOTAL's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK

Checking the ongoing alerts about VANGUARD TOTAL for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund keeps 99.06% of its net assets in stocks
Also, please take a look at VANGUARD TOTAL Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, VANGUARD TOTAL Correlation, VANGUARD TOTAL Hype Analysis, VANGUARD TOTAL Volatility, VANGUARD TOTAL History as well as VANGUARD TOTAL Performance. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK price analysis, check to measure VANGUARD TOTAL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy VANGUARD TOTAL is operating at the current time. Most of VANGUARD TOTAL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of VANGUARD TOTAL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move VANGUARD TOTAL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of VANGUARD TOTAL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between VANGUARD TOTAL's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine VANGUARD TOTAL value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VANGUARD TOTAL's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.