Visa (Brazil) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 50.89

VISA34
  

BRL 56.60  1.60  2.91%   

Visa's future price is the expected price of Visa instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Visa Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Also, please take a look at Visa Backtesting, Visa Valuation, Visa Correlation, Visa Hype Analysis, Visa Volatility, Visa History as well as Visa Performance. Please specify Visa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Visa odds to be computed.

Visa Target Price Odds to finish below 50.89

The tendency of Visa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to R$ 50.89  or more in 90 days
 56.60 90 days 50.89 
about 40.55
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Visa to drop to R$ 50.89  or more in 90 days from now is about 40.55 (This Visa Inc probability density function shows the probability of Visa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Visa Inc price to stay between R$ 50.89  and its current price of R$56.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.72 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Visa has a beta of 0.4. This entails as returns on the market go up, Visa average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Visa Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1389, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Visa Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Visa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Visa Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Visa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Visa in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
54.0956.6059.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
51.7754.2856.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Visa. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Visa's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Visa's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Visa Inc.

Visa Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Visa is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Visa's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Visa Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Visa within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.14
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.40
σ
Overall volatility
3.12
Ir
Information ratio 0.03299

Visa Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Visa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Visa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Visa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2107412746.00

Visa Technical Analysis

Visa's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Visa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Visa Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Visa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Visa Predictive Forecast Models

Visa time-series forecasting models is one of many Visa's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Visa's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Visa in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Visa's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Visa options trading.
Also, please take a look at Visa Backtesting, Visa Valuation, Visa Correlation, Visa Hype Analysis, Visa Volatility, Visa History as well as Visa Performance. Note that the Visa Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Visa's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

Complementary Tools for Visa Stock analysis

When running Visa Inc price analysis, check to measure Visa's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Visa is operating at the current time. Most of Visa's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Visa's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Visa's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Visa to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Visa's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Visa value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Visa's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.