Vanguard Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 62.19

VGLT
 Etf
  

USD 63.21  2.52  3.83%   

Vanguard Long-Term's future price is the expected price of Vanguard Long-Term instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Vanguard Long-Term Treasury performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Vanguard Long-Term's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Vanguard Long-Term Treasury. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Vanguard Long-Term based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Vanguard Long-Term Treasury over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $63.0 is a CALL option contract on Vanguard Long-Term's common stock with a strick price of 63.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-30 at 11:38:35 for $1.0 and, as of today, has 13 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.9, and an ask price of $3.1. The implied volatility as of the 3rd of December is 23.235. View All Vanguard options

Closest to current price Vanguard long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at Vanguard Long-Term Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Long-Term Correlation, Vanguard Long-Term Hype Analysis, Vanguard Long-Term Volatility, Vanguard Long-Term History as well as Vanguard Long-Term Performance. Please specify Vanguard Long-Term time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Vanguard Long-Term odds to be computed.

Vanguard Long-Term Target Price Odds to finish below 62.19

The tendency of Vanguard Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 62.19  or more in 90 days
 63.21 90 days 62.19 
about 46.66
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Long-Term to drop to $ 62.19  or more in 90 days from now is about 46.66 (This Vanguard Long-Term Treasury probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard Long-Term price to stay between $ 62.19  and its current price of $63.21 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.73 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Vanguard Long-Term has a beta of 0.29. This entails as returns on the market go up, Vanguard Long-Term average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vanguard Long-Term Treasury will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Vanguard Long-Term is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Vanguard Long-Term Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Vanguard Long-Term

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Long-Term. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Long-Term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vanguard Long-Term in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
64.4365.7367.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
63.4264.7266.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vanguard Long-Term. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vanguard Long-Term's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vanguard Long-Term's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vanguard Long-Term.

Vanguard Long-Term Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Long-Term is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Long-Term's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Long-Term Treasury, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Long-Term within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.08
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.29
σ
Overall volatility
2.73
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

Vanguard Long-Term Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard Long-Term for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard Long-Term can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
On 4th of November 2022 Vanguard Long-Term paid $ 0.1554 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Vanguard Long-Term created five year return of -2.0%
This fund keeps all of the net assets in exotic instruments

Vanguard Long-Term Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vanguard Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vanguard Long-Term's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vanguard Long-Term's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.09M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.43M

Vanguard Long-Term Technical Analysis

Vanguard Long-Term's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Long-Term Treasury. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Vanguard Long-Term Predictive Forecast Models

Vanguard Long-Term time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Long-Term's etf analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Vanguard Long-Term's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Vanguard Long-Term

Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard Long-Term for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard Long-Term help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
On 4th of November 2022 Vanguard Long-Term paid $ 0.1554 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Vanguard Long-Term created five year return of -2.0%
This fund keeps all of the net assets in exotic instruments
Also, please take a look at Vanguard Long-Term Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Long-Term Correlation, Vanguard Long-Term Hype Analysis, Vanguard Long-Term Volatility, Vanguard Long-Term History as well as Vanguard Long-Term Performance. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Vanguard Long-Term price analysis, check to measure Vanguard Long-Term's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vanguard Long-Term is operating at the current time. Most of Vanguard Long-Term's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vanguard Long-Term's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vanguard Long-Term's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vanguard Long-Term to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Vanguard Long-Term is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vanguard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vanguard Long-Term's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vanguard Long-Term's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vanguard Long-Term's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vanguard Long-Term's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard Long-Term's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vanguard Long-Term value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard Long-Term's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.