US Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 59.38

USB
 Stock
  

USD 46.59  0.57  1.24%   

US Bancorp's future price is the expected price of US Bancorp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of US Bancorp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 2.35. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 18.32.
  
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US Bancorp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on US Bancorp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of US Bancorp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in US Bancorp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-08 CALL at $47.0 is a CALL option contract on US Bancorp's common stock with a strick price of 47.0 expiring on 2022-07-08. The contract was last traded on 2022-07-01 at 15:54:40 for $0.45 and, as of today, has 6 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.4, and an ask price of $0.5. The implied volatility as of the 2nd of July is 24.8308. View All US Bancorp options

Closest to current price US Bancorp long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at US Bancorp Backtesting, US Bancorp Valuation, US Bancorp Correlation, US Bancorp Hype Analysis, US Bancorp Volatility, US Bancorp History as well as US Bancorp Performance. Please specify US Bancorp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like US Bancorp odds to be computed.
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US Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 59.38

The tendency of US Bancorp Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 59.38  after 90 days
 46.59 90 days 59.38  close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of US Bancorp to stay under $ 59.38  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This US Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of US Bancorp Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of US Bancorp price to stay between its current price of $ 46.59  and $ 59.38  at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.7 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon US Bancorp has a beta of 0.85. This usually implies US Bancorp market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, US Bancorp is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. US Bancorp is significantly underperforming DOW.
 US Bancorp Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for US Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of US Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of US Bancorp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
44.8146.4648.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
41.9357.0258.67
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
47.8349.4851.13
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
55.0066.4074.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as US Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against US Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, US Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in US Bancorp.

US Bancorp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. US Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the US Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold US Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of US Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.11
β
Beta against DOW0.85
σ
Overall volatility
2.51
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

US Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of US Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for US Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
US Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
US Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 77.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: Graypoint LLC Purchases 2047 Shares of U.S. Bancorp - Defense World

US Bancorp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of US Bancorp Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential US Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. US Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.71%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.72
Short Percent Of Float0.71%
Float Shares1.48B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day8.43M
Shares Short Prior Month11.54M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month7.85M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.73%

US Bancorp Technical Analysis

US Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. US Bancorp Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of US Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing US Bancorp Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

US Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models

US Bancorp time-series forecasting models is one of many US Bancorp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary US Bancorp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about US Bancorp

Checking the ongoing alerts about US Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for US Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

US Bancorp Alerts

US Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions

US Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
US Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 77.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: Graypoint LLC Purchases 2047 Shares of U.S. Bancorp - Defense World
Also, please take a look at US Bancorp Backtesting, US Bancorp Valuation, US Bancorp Correlation, US Bancorp Hype Analysis, US Bancorp Volatility, US Bancorp History as well as US Bancorp Performance. Note that the US Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other US Bancorp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

Complementary Tools for US Bancorp Stock analysis

When running US Bancorp price analysis, check to measure US Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy US Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of US Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of US Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move US Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of US Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is US Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of US Bancorp. If investors know US Bancorp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about US Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.32
Market Capitalization
68.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.13
Return On Assets
0.0127
Return On Equity
0.14
The market value of US Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of US Bancorp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of US Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is US Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because US Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect US Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between US Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine US Bancorp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, US Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.