Urban Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 20.19

URBN
 Stock
  

USD 20.19  1.70  7.77%   

Urban Outfitters' future price is the expected price of Urban Outfitters instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Urban Outfitters performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Urban Outfitters' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Urban Outfitters. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Urban Outfitters based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Urban Outfitters over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-07 CALL at $20.0 is a CALL option contract on Urban Outfitters' common stock with a strick price of 20.0 expiring on 2022-10-07. The contract was last traded on 2022-10-04 at 14:51:47 for $1.49 and, as of today, has 1 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.55, and an ask price of $1.85. The implied volatility as of the 6th of October is 85.053. View All Urban options

Closest to current price Urban long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at Urban Outfitters Backtesting, Urban Outfitters Valuation, Urban Outfitters Correlation, Urban Outfitters Hype Analysis, Urban Outfitters Volatility, Urban Outfitters History as well as Urban Outfitters Performance. Please specify Urban Outfitters time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Urban Outfitters odds to be computed.

Urban Outfitters Target Price Odds to finish over 20.19

The tendency of Urban Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 20.19 90 days 20.19 
about 76.92
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Urban Outfitters to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 76.92 (This Urban Outfitters probability density function shows the probability of Urban Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.64 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Urban Outfitters will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2405, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Urban Outfitters Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Urban Outfitters

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Urban Outfitters. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Urban Outfitters' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Urban Outfitters in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
18.6921.9925.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
19.7026.2929.59
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
31.0039.5546.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Urban Outfitters. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Urban Outfitters' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Urban Outfitters' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Urban Outfitters.

Urban Outfitters Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Urban Outfitters is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Urban Outfitters' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Urban Outfitters, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Urban Outfitters within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.24
β
Beta against DOW1.64
σ
Overall volatility
1.10
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Urban Outfitters Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Urban Outfitters for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Urban Outfitters can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Urban Outfitters has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 81.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.marketbeat.com: Urban Outfitters, Inc. Short Interest Update - MarketBeat

Urban Outfitters Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Urban Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Urban Outfitters' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Urban Outfitters' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out15.37%
Short Percent Of Float21.83%
Float Shares67.54M
Shares Short Prior Month10.25M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.11M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.1M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Urban Outfitters Technical Analysis

Urban Outfitters' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Urban Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Urban Outfitters. In general, you should focus on analyzing Urban Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Urban Outfitters Predictive Forecast Models

Urban Outfitters time-series forecasting models is one of many Urban Outfitters' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Urban Outfitters' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Urban Outfitters

Checking the ongoing alerts about Urban Outfitters for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Urban Outfitters help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Urban Outfitters has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 81.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.marketbeat.com: Urban Outfitters, Inc. Short Interest Update - MarketBeat
Also, please take a look at Urban Outfitters Backtesting, Urban Outfitters Valuation, Urban Outfitters Correlation, Urban Outfitters Hype Analysis, Urban Outfitters Volatility, Urban Outfitters History as well as Urban Outfitters Performance. Note that the Urban Outfitters information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Urban Outfitters' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

Complementary Tools for Urban Stock analysis

When running Urban Outfitters price analysis, check to measure Urban Outfitters' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Urban Outfitters is operating at the current time. Most of Urban Outfitters' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Urban Outfitters' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Urban Outfitters' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Urban Outfitters to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Urban Outfitters' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Urban Outfitters. If investors know Urban will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Urban Outfitters listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Urban Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Urban that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Urban Outfitters' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Urban Outfitters' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Urban Outfitters' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Urban Outfitters' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Urban Outfitters' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Urban Outfitters value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Urban Outfitters' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.