United Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 161.82

UPS
 Stock
  

USD 186.66  1.77  0.96%   

United Parcel's future price is the expected price of United Parcel instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of United Parcel Service performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. United Parcel Price to Book Value is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. United Parcel reported last year Price to Book Value of 222.31. As of 11/30/2022, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 40.37, while Price to Sales Ratio is likely to drop 1.86.
  
United Parcel's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on United Parcel Service. Implied volatility approximates the future value of United Parcel based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in United Parcel Service over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-02 CALL at $187.5 is a CALL option contract on United Parcel's common stock with a strick price of 187.5 expiring on 2022-12-02. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-29 at 15:58:44 for $0.88 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.81, and an ask price of $0.99. The implied volatility as of the 30th of November is 34.6684. View All United options

Closest to current price United long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at United Parcel Backtesting, United Parcel Valuation, United Parcel Correlation, United Parcel Hype Analysis, United Parcel Volatility, United Parcel History as well as United Parcel Performance. Please specify United Parcel time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like United Parcel odds to be computed.

United Parcel Target Price Odds to finish over 161.82

The tendency of United Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 161.82  in 90 days
 186.66 90 days 161.82 
more than 93.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United Parcel to stay above $ 161.82  in 90 days from now is more than 93.0 (This United Parcel Service probability density function shows the probability of United Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of United Parcel Service price to stay between $ 161.82  and its current price of $186.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.28 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.2 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, United Parcel will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.349, implying that it can generate a 0.35 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   United Parcel Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for United Parcel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Parcel Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Parcel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of United Parcel in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
180.43182.42184.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
164.27198.29200.28
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
186.14188.12190.11
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
135.00216.31260.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as United Parcel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against United Parcel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, United Parcel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in United Parcel Service.

United Parcel Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United Parcel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United Parcel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United Parcel Service, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United Parcel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.35
β
Beta against DOW1.20
σ
Overall volatility
7.90
Ir
Information ratio 0.19

United Parcel Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of United Parcel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for United Parcel Service can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 72.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Kevin Warsh of 174 shares of United Parcel subject to Rule 16b-3

United Parcel Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of United Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential United Parcel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Parcel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date10th of November 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out1.22%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate5.58
Short Percent Of Float1.45%
Float Shares729.4M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.9M
Shares Short Prior Month9.69M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.12M
Date Short Interest31st of October 2022

United Parcel Technical Analysis

United Parcel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United Parcel Service. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

United Parcel Predictive Forecast Models

United Parcel time-series forecasting models is one of many United Parcel's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary United Parcel's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about United Parcel Service

Checking the ongoing alerts about United Parcel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for United Parcel Service help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 72.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Kevin Warsh of 174 shares of United Parcel subject to Rule 16b-3
Also, please take a look at United Parcel Backtesting, United Parcel Valuation, United Parcel Correlation, United Parcel Hype Analysis, United Parcel Volatility, United Parcel History as well as United Parcel Performance. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running United Parcel Service price analysis, check to measure United Parcel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Parcel is operating at the current time. Most of United Parcel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Parcel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Parcel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Parcel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Is United Parcel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Parcel. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Parcel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.12
Market Capitalization
155.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.042
Return On Assets
0.13
Return On Equity
0.77
The market value of United Parcel Service is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Parcel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Parcel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Parcel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Parcel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Parcel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine United Parcel value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Parcel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.