Ulta Beauty Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 395.99

ULTA
 Stock
  

USD 395.99  7.96  1.97%   

Ulta Beauty's future price is the expected price of Ulta Beauty instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ulta Beauty performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Ulta Beauty's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Ulta Beauty. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Ulta Beauty based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Ulta Beauty over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-07 CALL at $395.0 is a CALL option contract on Ulta Beauty's common stock with a strick price of 395.0 expiring on 2022-10-07. The contract was last traded on 2022-10-04 at 12:26:32 for $10.7 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $11.0, and an ask price of $12.6. The implied volatility as of the 5th of October is 53.3334. View All Ulta Beauty options

Closest to current price Ulta Beauty long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at Ulta Beauty Backtesting, Ulta Beauty Valuation, Ulta Beauty Correlation, Ulta Beauty Hype Analysis, Ulta Beauty Volatility, Ulta Beauty History as well as Ulta Beauty Performance. Please specify Ulta Beauty time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ulta Beauty odds to be computed.

Ulta Beauty Target Price Odds to finish over 395.99

The tendency of Ulta Beauty Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 395.99 90 days 395.99 
about 64.38
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ulta Beauty to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 64.38 (This Ulta Beauty probability density function shows the probability of Ulta Beauty Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ulta Beauty has a beta of 0.73. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Ulta Beauty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ulta Beauty will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1168, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Ulta Beauty Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ulta Beauty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ulta Beauty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ulta Beauty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ulta Beauty in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
395.19396.97398.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
357.68442.27444.05
Details
25 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
340.00453.10516.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ulta Beauty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ulta Beauty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ulta Beauty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ulta Beauty.

Ulta Beauty Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ulta Beauty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ulta Beauty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ulta Beauty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ulta Beauty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.12
β
Beta against DOW0.73
σ
Overall volatility
18.44
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Ulta Beauty Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ulta Beauty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ulta Beauty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Ulta Beauty Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ulta Beauty Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ulta Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ulta Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.07%
Short Percent Of Float3.51%
Float Shares51.08M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day737.36k
Shares Short Prior Month1.23M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month861.79k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis

Ulta Beauty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ulta Beauty Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ulta Beauty. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ulta Beauty Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ulta Beauty Predictive Forecast Models

Ulta Beauty time-series forecasting models is one of many Ulta Beauty's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Ulta Beauty's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ulta Beauty

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ulta Beauty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ulta Beauty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Also, please take a look at Ulta Beauty Backtesting, Ulta Beauty Valuation, Ulta Beauty Correlation, Ulta Beauty Hype Analysis, Ulta Beauty Volatility, Ulta Beauty History as well as Ulta Beauty Performance. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Ulta Beauty price analysis, check to measure Ulta Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ulta Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of Ulta Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ulta Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ulta Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ulta Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Go
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Is Ulta Beauty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ulta Beauty. If investors know Ulta Beauty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ulta Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Ulta Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ulta Beauty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ulta Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ulta Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ulta Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ulta Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ulta Beauty value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ulta Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.