UBS Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.69

UBS
 Stock
  

USD 18.44  0.02  0.11%   

UBS Group's future price is the expected price of UBS Group instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of UBS Group AG performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 12/03/2022, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 15.57, while Price to Book Value is likely to drop 1.12.
  
UBS Group's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on UBS Group AG. Implied volatility approximates the future value of UBS Group based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in UBS Group AG over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $17.5 is a CALL option contract on UBS Group's common stock with a strick price of 17.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-28 at 11:26:03 for $1.01 and, as of today, has 13 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.05, and an ask price of $1.2. The implied volatility as of the 3rd of December is 36.0603. View All UBS Group options

Closest to current price UBS Group long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at UBS Group Backtesting, UBS Group Valuation, UBS Group Correlation, UBS Group Hype Analysis, UBS Group Volatility, UBS Group History as well as UBS Group Performance. Please specify UBS Group time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like UBS Group odds to be computed.

UBS Group Target Price Odds to finish over 13.69

The tendency of UBS Group Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 13.69  in 90 days
 18.44 90 days 13.69 
roughly 96.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UBS Group to stay above $ 13.69  in 90 days from now is roughly 96.0 (This UBS Group AG probability density function shows the probability of UBS Group Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UBS Group AG price to stay between $ 13.69  and its current price of $18.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.61 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.29 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, UBS Group will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1267, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   UBS Group Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for UBS Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UBS Group AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of UBS Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of UBS Group in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
15.8818.4120.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14.2116.7419.27
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
8.1613.6917.15
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.171.171.17
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as UBS Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against UBS Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, UBS Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in UBS Group AG.

UBS Group Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UBS Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UBS Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UBS Group AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UBS Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.13
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.29
σ
Overall volatility
1.41
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

UBS Group Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UBS Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UBS Group AG can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
UBS Group AG has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 57.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: iPhone Delays Weigh on Apple Ahead of Holiday Season - TIME

UBS Group Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UBS Group Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UBS Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UBS Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding3627241375.00
Cash And Short Term Investments203642000000.00

UBS Group Technical Analysis

UBS Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UBS Group Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UBS Group AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing UBS Group Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

UBS Group Predictive Forecast Models

UBS Group time-series forecasting models is one of many UBS Group's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary UBS Group's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about UBS Group AG

Checking the ongoing alerts about UBS Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UBS Group AG help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
UBS Group AG has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 57.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: iPhone Delays Weigh on Apple Ahead of Holiday Season - TIME
Also, please take a look at UBS Group Backtesting, UBS Group Valuation, UBS Group Correlation, UBS Group Hype Analysis, UBS Group Volatility, UBS Group History as well as UBS Group Performance. Note that the UBS Group AG information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other UBS Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for UBS Group Stock analysis

When running UBS Group AG price analysis, check to measure UBS Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UBS Group is operating at the current time. Most of UBS Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UBS Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UBS Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UBS Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is UBS Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UBS Group. If investors know UBS Group will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UBS Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.18) 
Market Capitalization
58.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.10) 
Return On Assets
0.0067
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of UBS Group AG is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UBS Group that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UBS Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UBS Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UBS Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UBS Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UBS Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine UBS Group value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UBS Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.