Under Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 8.80

UA
 Stock
  

USD 8.80  0.21  2.33%   

Under Armour's future price is the expected price of Under Armour instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Under Armour performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Under Armour's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Under Armour. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Under Armour based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Under Armour over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $9.0 is a CALL option contract on Under Armour's common stock with a strick price of 9.0 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-17 at 13:58:24 for $0.15 and, as of today, has 1 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.15, and an ask price of $0.2. The implied volatility as of the 18th of August 2022 is 54.2944. View All Under options

Closest to current price Under long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at Under Armour Backtesting, Under Armour Valuation, Under Armour Correlation, Under Armour Hype Analysis, Under Armour Volatility, Under Armour History as well as Under Armour Performance. Please specify Under Armour time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Under Armour odds to be computed.

Under Armour Target Price Odds to finish over 8.80

The tendency of Under Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 8.80 90 days 8.80 
about 38.96
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Under Armour to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 38.96 (This Under Armour probability density function shows the probability of Under Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.92 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Under Armour will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Under Armour is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Under Armour Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Under Armour

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Under Armour. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Under Armour's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Under Armour in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
5.588.7912.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
7.9415.4918.70
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
6.119.3212.53
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
32.0036.0040.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Under Armour. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Under Armour's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Under Armour's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Under Armour.

Under Armour Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Under Armour is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Under Armour's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Under Armour, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Under Armour within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.27
β
Beta against DOW1.92
σ
Overall volatility
0.82
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Under Armour Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Under Armour for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Under Armour can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Under Armour has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: Under Armour, Inc. to Post Q2 2023 Earnings of 0.17 Per Share, Seaport Res Ptn Forecasts - Defense World

Under Armour Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Under Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Under Armour's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Under Armour's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.53%
Float Shares390.46M
Shares Short Prior Month14.58M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.77M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month5.52M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Under Armour Technical Analysis

Under Armour's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Under Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Under Armour. In general, you should focus on analyzing Under Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Under Armour Predictive Forecast Models

Under Armour time-series forecasting models is one of many Under Armour's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Under Armour's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Under Armour

Checking the ongoing alerts about Under Armour for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Under Armour help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Under Armour Alerts

Under Armour Alerts and Suggestions

Under Armour has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: Under Armour, Inc. to Post Q2 2023 Earnings of 0.17 Per Share, Seaport Res Ptn Forecasts - Defense World
Also, please take a look at Under Armour Backtesting, Under Armour Valuation, Under Armour Correlation, Under Armour Hype Analysis, Under Armour Volatility, Under Armour History as well as Under Armour Performance. Note that the Under Armour information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Under Armour's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.

Complementary Tools for Under Stock analysis

When running Under Armour price analysis, check to measure Under Armour's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Under Armour is operating at the current time. Most of Under Armour's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Under Armour's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Under Armour's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Under Armour to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Under Armour's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Under Armour. If investors know Under will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Under Armour listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.87
Market Capitalization
4.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.002
Return On Assets
0.0655
Return On Equity
0.19
The market value of Under Armour is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Under that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Under Armour's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Under Armour's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Under Armour's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Under Armour's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Under Armour's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Under Armour value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Under Armour's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.