Simply Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 33.2

SMPL
 Stock
  

USD 37.81  0.69  1.79%   

Simply Good's future price is the expected price of Simply Good instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Simply Good Foods performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The Price to Book Value is projected to pull down to 0.81. The value of Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to pull down to 19.83.
  
Simply Good's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Simply Good Foods. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Simply Good based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Simply Good Foods over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $40.0 is a CALL option contract on Simply Good's common stock with a strick price of 40.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-02 at 15:01:33 for $1.05 and, as of today, has 7 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.2, and an ask price of $0.55. The implied volatility as of the 9th of December is 42.98. View All Simply options

Closest to current price Simply long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, take a look at Simply Good Backtesting, Simply Good Valuation, Simply Good Correlation, Simply Good Hype Analysis, Simply Good Volatility, Simply Good History as well as Simply Good Performance. Please specify Simply Good time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Simply Good odds to be computed.

Simply Good Target Price Odds to finish over 33.2

The tendency of Simply Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 33.20  in 90 days
 37.81 90 days 33.20 
about 69.81
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Simply Good to stay above $ 33.20  in 90 days from now is about 69.81 (This Simply Good Foods probability density function shows the probability of Simply Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Simply Good Foods price to stay between $ 33.20  and its current price of $37.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.34 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Simply Good has a beta of 0.96. This usually implies Simply Good Foods market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Simply Good is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.3597, implying that it can generate a 0.36 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Simply Good Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Simply Good

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Simply Good Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Simply Good's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Simply Good in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
36.0538.4940.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34.6542.8545.29
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
36.5538.9941.42
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
39.0042.5045.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Simply Good. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Simply Good's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Simply Good's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Simply Good Foods.

Simply Good Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Simply Good is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Simply Good's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Simply Good Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Simply Good within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.36
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.96
σ
Overall volatility
3.43
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

Simply Good Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Simply Good for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Simply Good Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Simply Good Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Simply Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Simply Good's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Simply Good's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding100589156.00
Cash And Short Term Investments67494000.00

Simply Good Technical Analysis

Simply Good's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Simply Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Simply Good Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Simply Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Simply Good Predictive Forecast Models

Simply Good time-series forecasting models is one of many Simply Good's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Simply Good's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Simply Good Foods

Checking the ongoing alerts about Simply Good for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Simply Good Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Additionally, take a look at Simply Good Backtesting, Simply Good Valuation, Simply Good Correlation, Simply Good Hype Analysis, Simply Good Volatility, Simply Good History as well as Simply Good Performance. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Simply Good Foods price analysis, check to measure Simply Good's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Simply Good is operating at the current time. Most of Simply Good's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Simply Good's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Simply Good's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Simply Good to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Simply Good's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Simply Good. If investors know Simply will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Simply Good listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.581
Market Capitalization
3.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.055
Return On Assets
0.0613
Return On Equity
0.0826
The market value of Simply Good Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Simply that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Simply Good's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Simply Good's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Simply Good's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Simply Good's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Simply Good's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Simply Good value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Simply Good's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.