JM Smucker Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 125.57

SJM
 Stock
  

USD 151.52  2.42  1.57%   

JM Smucker's future price is the expected price of JM Smucker instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of JM Smucker performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The Price to Book Value is projected to pull down to 2.35. The value of Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to pull down to 18.96.
  
JM Smucker's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on JM Smucker. Implied volatility approximates the future value of JM Smucker based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in JM Smucker over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $150.0 is a CALL option contract on JM Smucker's common stock with a strick price of 150.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-01 at 15:52:52 for $5.28 and, as of today, has 14 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $5.0, and an ask price of $5.5. The implied volatility as of the 2nd of December is 23.9379. View All JM Smucker options

Closest to current price JM Smucker long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, take a look at JM Smucker Backtesting, JM Smucker Valuation, JM Smucker Correlation, JM Smucker Hype Analysis, JM Smucker Volatility, JM Smucker History as well as JM Smucker Performance. Please specify JM Smucker time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like JM Smucker odds to be computed.

JM Smucker Target Price Odds to finish below 125.57

The tendency of JM Smucker Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 125.57  or more in 90 days
 151.52 90 days 125.57 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JM Smucker to drop to $ 125.57  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This JM Smucker probability density function shows the probability of JM Smucker Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of JM Smucker price to stay between $ 125.57  and its current price of $151.52 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon JM Smucker has a beta of 0.31. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, JM Smucker average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding JM Smucker will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1069, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   JM Smucker Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for JM Smucker

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JM Smucker. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of JM Smucker's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of JM Smucker in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
150.64151.78152.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
145.67146.81166.67
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
157.85158.99160.12
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
130.00139.44146.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as JM Smucker. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against JM Smucker's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, JM Smucker's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in JM Smucker.

JM Smucker Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JM Smucker is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JM Smucker's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JM Smucker, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JM Smucker within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.11
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.31
σ
Overall volatility
4.85
Ir
Information ratio 0.02549

JM Smucker Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of JM Smucker for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for JM Smucker can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 1st of December 2022 JM Smucker paid $ 1.02 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: The J.M. Smucker Rises on Q2 Earnings Beat Raised View - Yahoo Finance

JM Smucker Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of JM Smucker Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential JM Smucker's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JM Smucker's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding112400000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments169900000.00

JM Smucker Technical Analysis

JM Smucker's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JM Smucker Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JM Smucker. In general, you should focus on analyzing JM Smucker Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

JM Smucker Predictive Forecast Models

JM Smucker time-series forecasting models is one of many JM Smucker's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary JM Smucker's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about JM Smucker

Checking the ongoing alerts about JM Smucker for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for JM Smucker help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 1st of December 2022 JM Smucker paid $ 1.02 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: The J.M. Smucker Rises on Q2 Earnings Beat Raised View - Yahoo Finance
Additionally, take a look at JM Smucker Backtesting, JM Smucker Valuation, JM Smucker Correlation, JM Smucker Hype Analysis, JM Smucker Volatility, JM Smucker History as well as JM Smucker Performance. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

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When running JM Smucker price analysis, check to measure JM Smucker's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JM Smucker is operating at the current time. Most of JM Smucker's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JM Smucker's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JM Smucker's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JM Smucker to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is JM Smucker's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JM Smucker. If investors know JM Smucker will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JM Smucker listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.06) 
Market Capitalization
16.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.076
Return On Assets
0.0413
Return On Equity
0.0694
The market value of JM Smucker is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JM Smucker that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JM Smucker's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JM Smucker's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JM Smucker's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JM Smucker's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JM Smucker's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine JM Smucker value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JM Smucker's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.