Sirius Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.20

SIRI
 Stock
  

USD 6.20  0.05  0.81%   

Sirius XM's future price is the expected price of Sirius XM instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Sirius XM Holding performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current Price to Sales Ratio is estimated to increase to 5.15, while Price to Book Value is projected to decrease to (32.00) .
  
Sirius XM's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Sirius XM Holding. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Sirius XM based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Sirius XM Holding over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-09 CALL at $6.0 is a CALL option contract on Sirius XM's common stock with a strick price of 6.0 expiring on 2022-12-09. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-06 at 15:41:17 for $0.15 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.1, and an ask price of $0.25. The implied volatility as of the 7th of December is 91.3002. View All Sirius options

Closest to current price Sirius long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, take a look at Sirius XM Backtesting, Sirius XM Valuation, Sirius XM Correlation, Sirius XM Hype Analysis, Sirius XM Volatility, Sirius XM History as well as Sirius XM Performance. Please specify Sirius XM time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Sirius XM odds to be computed.

Sirius XM Target Price Odds to finish over 6.20

The tendency of Sirius Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 6.20 90 days 6.20 
about 37.52
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sirius XM to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 37.52 (This Sirius XM Holding probability density function shows the probability of Sirius Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Sirius XM has a beta of 0.7. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Sirius XM average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Sirius XM Holding will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Sirius XM Holding is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Sirius XM Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Sirius XM

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sirius XM Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sirius XM's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Sirius XM in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
4.816.177.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
5.496.858.21
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
4.595.957.31
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
6.007.5610.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sirius XM. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sirius XM's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sirius XM's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Sirius XM Holding.

Sirius XM Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sirius XM is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sirius XM's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sirius XM Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sirius XM within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.02
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.70
σ
Overall volatility
0.22
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Sirius XM Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sirius XM for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sirius XM Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company currently holds 8.83 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 12.44, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Sirius XM Holding has a current ratio of 0.37, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Sirius XM until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Sirius XM's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Sirius XM Holding sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Sirius to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Sirius XM's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Sirius XM Holding has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 83.0% of Sirius XM outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
On 30th of November 2022 Sirius XM paid $ 0.0242 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Jennifer Witz of 22 shares of Sirius XM subject to Rule 16b-3

Sirius XM Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sirius Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sirius XM's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sirius XM's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding4143000000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments191000000.00

Sirius XM Technical Analysis

Sirius XM's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sirius Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sirius XM Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sirius Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Sirius XM Predictive Forecast Models

Sirius XM time-series forecasting models is one of many Sirius XM's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Sirius XM's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Sirius XM Holding

Checking the ongoing alerts about Sirius XM for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sirius XM Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company currently holds 8.83 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 12.44, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Sirius XM Holding has a current ratio of 0.37, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Sirius XM until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Sirius XM's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Sirius XM Holding sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Sirius to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Sirius XM's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Sirius XM Holding has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 83.0% of Sirius XM outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
On 30th of November 2022 Sirius XM paid $ 0.0242 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Jennifer Witz of 22 shares of Sirius XM subject to Rule 16b-3
Additionally, take a look at Sirius XM Backtesting, Sirius XM Valuation, Sirius XM Correlation, Sirius XM Hype Analysis, Sirius XM Volatility, Sirius XM History as well as Sirius XM Performance. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Sirius XM Holding price analysis, check to measure Sirius XM's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sirius XM is operating at the current time. Most of Sirius XM's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sirius XM's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sirius XM's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sirius XM to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Sirius XM's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sirius XM. If investors know Sirius will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sirius XM listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.25) 
Market Capitalization
23.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.037
Return On Assets
0.1257
The market value of Sirius XM Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sirius that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sirius XM's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sirius XM's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sirius XM's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sirius XM's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sirius XM's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Sirius XM value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sirius XM's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.