Royal Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 34.42

RCL
 Stock
  

USD 59.93  1.83  3.15%   

Royal Caribbean's future price is the expected price of Royal Caribbean instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Royal Caribbean Cruises performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Royal Caribbean's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Royal Caribbean Cruises. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Royal Caribbean based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Royal Caribbean Cruises over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-02 CALL at $60.0 is a CALL option contract on Royal Caribbean's common stock with a strick price of 60.0 expiring on 2022-12-02. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-30 at 15:59:47 for $1.09 and, as of today, has 1 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.04, and an ask price of $1.1. The implied volatility as of the 30th of November is 89.5869. View All Royal options

Closest to current price Royal long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, take a look at Royal Caribbean Backtesting, Royal Caribbean Valuation, Royal Caribbean Correlation, Royal Caribbean Hype Analysis, Royal Caribbean Volatility, Royal Caribbean History as well as Royal Caribbean Performance. Please specify Royal Caribbean time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Royal Caribbean odds to be computed.

Royal Caribbean Target Price Odds to finish below 34.42

The tendency of Royal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 34.42  or more in 90 days
 59.93 90 days 34.42 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Royal Caribbean to drop to $ 34.42  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Royal Caribbean Cruises probability density function shows the probability of Royal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Royal Caribbean Cruises price to stay between $ 34.42  and its current price of $59.93 at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Royal Caribbean Cruises has a beta of -0.42 indicating as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Royal Caribbean are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Royal Caribbean Cruises is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.6482, implying that it can generate a 0.65 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Royal Caribbean Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Royal Caribbean

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Royal Caribbean Cruises. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Royal Caribbean's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Royal Caribbean in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
55.3659.9364.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
53.9473.7478.31
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
57.0561.6266.19
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
85.00101.67120.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Royal Caribbean. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Royal Caribbean's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Royal Caribbean's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Royal Caribbean Cruises.

Royal Caribbean Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Royal Caribbean is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Royal Caribbean's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Royal Caribbean Cruises, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Royal Caribbean within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.65
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.42
σ
Overall volatility
6.37
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

Royal Caribbean Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Royal Caribbean for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Royal Caribbean Cruises can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Royal Caribbean appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company has 18.85 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.47, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Royal Caribbean Cruises has a current ratio of 0.28, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Royal Caribbean until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Royal Caribbean's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Royal Caribbean Cruises sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Royal to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Royal Caribbean's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the last year's revenue of 1.53 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (5.26 B) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (1.08 B).
Royal Caribbean Cruises has about 2.7 B in cash with (1.88 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.14.
Over 76.0% of Royal Caribbean shares are owned by institutional investors

Royal Caribbean Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Royal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Royal Caribbean's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Royal Caribbean's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding254713000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments2701770000.00

Royal Caribbean Technical Analysis

Royal Caribbean's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Royal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Royal Caribbean Cruises. In general, you should focus on analyzing Royal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Royal Caribbean Predictive Forecast Models

Royal Caribbean time-series forecasting models is one of many Royal Caribbean's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Royal Caribbean's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Royal Caribbean Cruises

Checking the ongoing alerts about Royal Caribbean for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Royal Caribbean Cruises help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Royal Caribbean appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company has 18.85 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.47, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Royal Caribbean Cruises has a current ratio of 0.28, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Royal Caribbean until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Royal Caribbean's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Royal Caribbean Cruises sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Royal to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Royal Caribbean's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the last year's revenue of 1.53 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (5.26 B) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (1.08 B).
Royal Caribbean Cruises has about 2.7 B in cash with (1.88 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.14.
Over 76.0% of Royal Caribbean shares are owned by institutional investors
Additionally, take a look at Royal Caribbean Backtesting, Royal Caribbean Valuation, Royal Caribbean Correlation, Royal Caribbean Hype Analysis, Royal Caribbean Volatility, Royal Caribbean History as well as Royal Caribbean Performance. Note that the Royal Caribbean Cruises information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Royal Caribbean's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

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When running Royal Caribbean Cruises price analysis, check to measure Royal Caribbean's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Royal Caribbean is operating at the current time. Most of Royal Caribbean's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Royal Caribbean's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Royal Caribbean's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Royal Caribbean to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Royal Caribbean's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Royal Caribbean. If investors know Royal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Royal Caribbean listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.088
Market Capitalization
15.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
5.55
Return On Assets
(0.0333) 
Return On Equity
(0.62) 
The market value of Royal Caribbean Cruises is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Royal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Royal Caribbean's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Royal Caribbean's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Royal Caribbean's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Royal Caribbean's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Royal Caribbean's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Royal Caribbean value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Royal Caribbean's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.