American Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 12.29

RAJTX
 Fund
  

USD 11.89  0.02  0.17%   

American Fds' future price is the expected price of American Fds instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Fds 2015 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Additionally, take a look at American Fds Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Fds Correlation, American Fds Hype Analysis, American Fds Volatility, American Fds History as well as American Fds Performance. Please specify American Fds time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Fds odds to be computed.

American Fds Target Price Odds to finish over 12.29

The tendency of American Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 12.29  or more in 90 days
 11.89 90 days 12.29 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Fds to move over $ 12.29  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This American Fds 2015 probability density function shows the probability of American Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Fds 2015 price to stay between its current price of $ 11.89  and $ 12.29  at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.62 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American Fds has a beta of 0.46 indicating as returns on the market go up, American Fds average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Fds 2015 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. American Fds 2015 is significantly underperforming DOW.
   American Fds Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Fds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Fds 2015. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Fds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Fds in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.4811.9212.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.4910.9313.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Fds. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Fds' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Fds' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Fds 2015.

American Fds Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Fds is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Fds' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Fds 2015, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Fds within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.03
β
Beta against DOW0.46
σ
Overall volatility
0.23
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

American Fds Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Fds for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Fds 2015 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Fds 2015 is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.michigansthumb.com: Comedy night benefitting Shelterhouse set for Aug. 5 - Huron Daily Tribune
The fund maintains about 5.91% of its assets in cash

American Fds Technical Analysis

American Fds' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Fds 2015. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Fds Predictive Forecast Models

American Fds time-series forecasting models is one of many American Fds' mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary American Fds' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Fds 2015

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Fds for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Fds 2015 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

American Fds Alerts

American Fds Alerts and Suggestions

American Fds 2015 is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.michigansthumb.com: Comedy night benefitting Shelterhouse set for Aug. 5 - Huron Daily Tribune
The fund maintains about 5.91% of its assets in cash
Additionally, take a look at American Fds Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Fds Correlation, American Fds Hype Analysis, American Fds Volatility, American Fds History as well as American Fds Performance. Note that the American Fds 2015 information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Fds' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

Complementary Tools for American Mutual Fund analysis

When running American Fds 2015 price analysis, check to measure American Fds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Fds is operating at the current time. Most of American Fds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Fds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Fds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Fds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Fds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Fds value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Fds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.