Qantas OTC Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Over 15.16

QABSY
 Stock
  

USD 15.16  0.37  2.38%   

Qantas Airways' future price is the expected price of Qantas Airways instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Qantas Airways ADR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
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Please see Qantas Airways Backtesting, Qantas Airways Valuation, Qantas Airways Correlation, Qantas Airways Hype Analysis, Qantas Airways Volatility, Qantas Airways History as well as Qantas Airways Performance. Please specify Qantas Airways time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Qantas Airways odds to be computed.
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Qantas Airways Target Price Odds to finish over 15.16

The tendency of Qantas OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 15.16 90 days 15.16  about 98.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Qantas Airways to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Qantas Airways ADR probability density function shows the probability of Qantas OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Qantas Airways has a beta of 0.71 indicating as returns on the market go up, Qantas Airways average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Qantas Airways ADR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Qantas Airways ADR is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Qantas Airways Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Qantas Airways

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Qantas Airways ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Qantas Airways' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Qantas Airways in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
12.5815.3218.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.2413.9816.72
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
12.9915.7318.46
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
13.5216.7219.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Qantas Airways. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Qantas Airways' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Qantas Airways' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Qantas Airways ADR.

Qantas Airways Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Qantas Airways is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Qantas Airways' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Qantas Airways ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Qantas Airways within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.21
β
Beta against DOW0.71
σ
Overall volatility
1.60
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Qantas Airways Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Qantas Airways for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Qantas Airways ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Qantas Airways ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Qantas Airways ADR has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company has accumulated 8.37 B in total debt. Qantas Airways ADR has a current ratio of 0.51, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Qantas Airways until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Qantas Airways' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Qantas Airways ADR sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Qantas to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Qantas Airways' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 6.68 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.12 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.57 B.

Qantas Airways Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Qantas OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Qantas Airways' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Qantas Airways' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.13
Float Shares374.03M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day5.51k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.08k
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.81%

Qantas Airways Technical Analysis

Qantas Airways' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Qantas OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Qantas Airways ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Qantas OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Qantas Airways Predictive Forecast Models

Qantas Airways time-series forecasting models is one of many Qantas Airways' otc stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Qantas Airways' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Qantas Airways ADR

Checking the ongoing alerts about Qantas Airways for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Qantas Airways ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Qantas Airways Alerts

Qantas Airways Alerts and Suggestions

Qantas Airways ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Qantas Airways ADR has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company has accumulated 8.37 B in total debt. Qantas Airways ADR has a current ratio of 0.51, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Qantas Airways until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Qantas Airways' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Qantas Airways ADR sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Qantas to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Qantas Airways' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 6.68 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.12 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.57 B.
Please see Qantas Airways Backtesting, Qantas Airways Valuation, Qantas Airways Correlation, Qantas Airways Hype Analysis, Qantas Airways Volatility, Qantas Airways History as well as Qantas Airways Performance. Note that the Qantas Airways ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Qantas Airways' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Shere Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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When running Qantas Airways ADR price analysis, check to measure Qantas Airways' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Qantas Airways is operating at the current time. Most of Qantas Airways' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Qantas Airways' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Qantas Airways' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Qantas Airways to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Qantas Airways' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Qantas Airways. If investors know Qantas will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Qantas Airways listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.036
Market Capitalization
5.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.32
Return On Assets
-0.0572
Return On Equity
-2.9
The market value of Qantas Airways ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Qantas that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Qantas Airways' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Qantas Airways' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Qantas Airways' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Qantas Airways' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Qantas Airways' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Qantas Airways value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Qantas Airways' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.