Perficient Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 163.0

PRFT
 Stock
  

USD 85.72  0.84  0.99%   

Perficient's future price is the expected price of Perficient instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Perficient performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is likely to gain to 2.34 in 2022. Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to gain to 38.21 in 2022.
  
Perficient's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Perficient. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Perficient based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Perficient over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $85.0 is a CALL option contract on Perficient's common stock with a strick price of 85.0 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-11 at 09:59:06 for $3.7 and, as of today, has 7 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.35, and an ask price of $3.8. The implied volatility as of the 11th of August 2022 is 65.5853. View All Perficient options

Closest to current price Perficient long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Perficient Backtesting, Perficient Valuation, Perficient Correlation, Perficient Hype Analysis, Perficient Volatility, Perficient History as well as Perficient Performance. Please specify Perficient time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Perficient odds to be computed.

Perficient Target Price Odds to finish over 163.0

The tendency of Perficient Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 163.00  or more in 90 days
 85.72 90 days 163.00 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Perficient to move over $ 163.00  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Perficient probability density function shows the probability of Perficient Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Perficient price to stay between its current price of $ 85.72  and $ 163.00  at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.73 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Perficient will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Perficient is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Perficient Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Perficient

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Perficient. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Perficient's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Perficient in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
82.5285.9289.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
77.15101.21104.61
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
68.6072.0075.41
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
125.00147.67163.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Perficient. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Perficient's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Perficient's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Perficient.

Perficient Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Perficient is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Perficient's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Perficient, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Perficient within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.14
β
Beta against DOW1.73
σ
Overall volatility
6.00
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Perficient Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Perficient for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Perficient can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Perficient generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Perficient has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Brian Matthews of 222 shares of Perficient subject to Rule 16b-3

Perficient Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Perficient Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Perficient's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Perficient's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.41%
Short Percent Of Float6.10%
Float Shares33.9M
Shares Short Prior Month1.33M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day244.05k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month219.54k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Perficient Technical Analysis

Perficient's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Perficient Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Perficient. In general, you should focus on analyzing Perficient Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Perficient Predictive Forecast Models

Perficient time-series forecasting models is one of many Perficient's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Perficient's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Perficient

Checking the ongoing alerts about Perficient for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Perficient help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Perficient Alerts

Perficient Alerts and Suggestions

Perficient generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Perficient has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Brian Matthews of 222 shares of Perficient subject to Rule 16b-3
Please check Perficient Backtesting, Perficient Valuation, Perficient Correlation, Perficient Hype Analysis, Perficient Volatility, Perficient History as well as Perficient Performance. Note that the Perficient information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Perficient's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Commodity Channel Index module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

Complementary Tools for Perficient Stock analysis

When running Perficient price analysis, check to measure Perficient's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Perficient is operating at the current time. Most of Perficient's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Perficient's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Perficient's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Perficient to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Perficient's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Perficient. If investors know Perficient will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Perficient listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.57
Market Capitalization
B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.21
Return On Assets
0.0979
Return On Equity
0.2
The market value of Perficient is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Perficient that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Perficient's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Perficient's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Perficient's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Perficient's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Perficient's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Perficient value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Perficient's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.