Pool Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 518.0

POOL
 Stock
  

USD 351.95  1.13  0.32%   

Pool Corp's future price is the expected price of Pool Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Pool Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is expected to hike to 20.41 this year, although the value of Price to Earnings Ratio will most likely fall to 23.96.
  
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Pool Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Pool Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Pool Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Pool Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $350.0 is a CALL option contract on Pool Corp's common stock with a strick price of 350.0 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-23 at 11:52:32 for $14.0 and, as of today, has 17 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $15.0, and an ask price of $23.0. The implied volatility as of the 29th of June is 49.707. View All Pool Corp options

Closest to current price Pool Corp long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Pool Corp Backtesting, Pool Corp Valuation, Pool Corp Correlation, Pool Corp Hype Analysis, Pool Corp Volatility, Pool Corp History as well as Pool Corp Performance. Please specify Pool Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Pool Corp odds to be computed.
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Pool Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 518.0

The tendency of Pool Corp Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 518.00  or more in 90 days
 351.95 90 days 518.00  near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Pool Corp to move over $ 518.00  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Pool Corp probability density function shows the probability of Pool Corp Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Pool Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 351.95  and $ 518.00  at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.8 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.24 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Pool Corp will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Pool Corp is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Pool Corp Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Pool Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pool Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pool Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Pool Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
344.77347.53350.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
311.18431.88434.64
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
347.40350.17352.93
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
360.00518.00570.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pool Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pool Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pool Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Pool Corp.

Pool Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Pool Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Pool Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Pool Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Pool Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.12
β
Beta against DOW1.24
σ
Overall volatility
28.64
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Pool Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Pool Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Pool Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Pool Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Pool Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Pool Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.zacks.com: Heres Why You Should Retain Pool Corp Stock Now - Zacks Investment Research

Pool Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Pool Corp Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Pool Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pool Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.39%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.76
Short Percent Of Float5.84%
Float Shares38.72M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day521.29k
Shares Short Prior Month1.62M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month448.07k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.78%

Pool Corp Technical Analysis

Pool Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Pool Corp Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Pool Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Pool Corp Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Pool Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Pool Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many Pool Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Pool Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Pool Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Pool Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Pool Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Pool Corp Alerts

Pool Corp Alerts and Suggestions

Pool Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Pool Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Pool Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.zacks.com: Heres Why You Should Retain Pool Corp Stock Now - Zacks Investment Research
Please check Pool Corp Backtesting, Pool Corp Valuation, Pool Corp Correlation, Pool Corp Hype Analysis, Pool Corp Volatility, Pool Corp History as well as Pool Corp Performance. Note that the Pool Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Pool Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

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When running Pool Corp price analysis, check to measure Pool Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pool Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Pool Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pool Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pool Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pool Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Pool Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pool Corp. If investors know Pool Corp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pool Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.82
Market Capitalization
14.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.33
Return On Assets
0.19
Return On Equity
0.8
The market value of Pool Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pool Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pool Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pool Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pool Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pool Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pool Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Pool Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pool Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.