Photronics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 14.94


USD 14.94  0.06  0.40%   

Photronics' future price is the expected price of Photronics instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Photronics performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
Photronics' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Photronics. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Photronics based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Photronics over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $15.0 is a CALL option contract on Photronics' common stock with a strick price of 15.0 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-29 at 12:54:52 for $0.6 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.65, and an ask price of $0.85. The implied volatility as of the 30th of September is 53.5995. View All Photronics options

Closest to current price Photronics long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Photronics Backtesting, Photronics Valuation, Photronics Correlation, Photronics Hype Analysis, Photronics Volatility, Photronics History as well as Photronics Performance. Please specify Photronics time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Photronics odds to be computed.

Photronics Target Price Odds to finish over 14.94

The tendency of Photronics Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 14.94 90 days 14.94 
about 90.53
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Photronics to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 90.53 (This Photronics probability density function shows the probability of Photronics Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.86 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Photronics will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Photronics is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Photronics Price Density   

Predictive Modules for Photronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Photronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Photronics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Photronics in the context of predictive analytics.
LowEstimated ValueHigh
LowReal ValueHigh
LowNext ValueHigh
3 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Photronics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Photronics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Photronics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Photronics.

Photronics Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Photronics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Photronics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Photronics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Photronics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW1.86
Overall volatility
Information ratio -0.04

Photronics Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Photronics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Photronics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Photronics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Photronics has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals Is The Market Wrong About Photronics, Inc. - Nasdaq

Photronics Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Photronics Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Photronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Photronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.81%
Short Percent Of Float3.45%
Float Shares59.71M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day850.65k
Shares Short Prior Month1.48M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.11M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Photronics Technical Analysis

Photronics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Photronics Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Photronics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Photronics Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Photronics Predictive Forecast Models

Photronics time-series forecasting models is one of many Photronics' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Photronics' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Photronics

Checking the ongoing alerts about Photronics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Photronics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Photronics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Photronics has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals Is The Market Wrong About Photronics, Inc. - Nasdaq
Please check Photronics Backtesting, Photronics Valuation, Photronics Correlation, Photronics Hype Analysis, Photronics Volatility, Photronics History as well as Photronics Performance. Note that the Photronics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Photronics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

Complementary Tools for Photronics Stock analysis

When running Photronics price analysis, check to measure Photronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Photronics is operating at the current time. Most of Photronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Photronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Photronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Photronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Photronics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Photronics. If investors know Photronics will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Photronics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Photronics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Photronics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Photronics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Photronics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Photronics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Photronics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Photronics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Photronics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Photronics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.