Progressive Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 122.23

PGR
 Stock
  

USD 131.57  0.48  0.37%   

Progressive Corp's future price is the expected price of Progressive Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Progressive Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 11/26/2022, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 16.61, while Price to Book Value is likely to drop 3.44.
  
Progressive Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Progressive Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Progressive Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Progressive Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $130.0 is a CALL option contract on Progressive Corp's common stock with a strick price of 130.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-25 at 12:17:06 for $3.81 and, as of today, has 20 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.6, and an ask price of $4.4. The implied volatility as of the 26th of November is 23.0052. View All Progressive options

Closest to current price Progressive long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Progressive Corp Backtesting, Progressive Corp Valuation, Progressive Corp Correlation, Progressive Corp Hype Analysis, Progressive Corp Volatility, Progressive Corp History as well as Progressive Corp Performance. Please specify Progressive Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Progressive Corp odds to be computed.

Progressive Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 122.23

The tendency of Progressive Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 122.23  in 90 days
 131.57 90 days 122.23 
about 72.86
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Progressive Corp to stay above $ 122.23  in 90 days from now is about 72.86 (This Progressive Corp probability density function shows the probability of Progressive Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Progressive Corp price to stay between $ 122.23  and its current price of $131.57 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.96 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Progressive Corp has a beta of 0.79 indicating as returns on the market go up, Progressive Corp average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Progressive Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0285, implying that it can generate a 0.0285 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Progressive Corp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Progressive Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Progressive Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Progressive Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Progressive Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
130.13131.87133.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
102.36104.10144.73
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
133.10134.84136.57
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
82.0099.00134.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Progressive Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Progressive Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Progressive Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Progressive Corp.

Progressive Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Progressive Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Progressive Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Progressive Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Progressive Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.028464
β
Beta against DOW0.79
σ
Overall volatility
3.73
Ir
Information ratio 0.009136

Progressive Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Progressive Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Progressive Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 6.39 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.43, which is OK given its current industry classification. Progressive Corp has a current ratio of 0.38, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Progressive Corp until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Progressive Corp's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Progressive Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Progressive to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Progressive Corp's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Progressive Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 88.0% of Progressive Corp shares are owned by institutional investors
On 14th of October 2022 Progressive Corp paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Progressive Celebrates 10 Years of the Keys to Progress program with more than 900 Vehicles Donated to Military Families - Marketscreener.com

Progressive Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Progressive Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Progressive Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Progressive Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.74%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate4.90
Short Percent Of Float0.74%
Float Shares582.83M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.94M
Shares Short Prior Month4.4M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.55M
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.77%

Progressive Corp Technical Analysis

Progressive Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Progressive Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Progressive Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Progressive Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Progressive Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Progressive Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many Progressive Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Progressive Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Progressive Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Progressive Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Progressive Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 6.39 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.43, which is OK given its current industry classification. Progressive Corp has a current ratio of 0.38, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Progressive Corp until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Progressive Corp's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Progressive Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Progressive to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Progressive Corp's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Progressive Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 88.0% of Progressive Corp shares are owned by institutional investors
On 14th of October 2022 Progressive Corp paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Progressive Celebrates 10 Years of the Keys to Progress program with more than 900 Vehicles Donated to Military Families - Marketscreener.com
Please check Progressive Corp Backtesting, Progressive Corp Valuation, Progressive Corp Correlation, Progressive Corp Hype Analysis, Progressive Corp Volatility, Progressive Corp History as well as Progressive Corp Performance. Note that the Progressive Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Progressive Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

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When running Progressive Corp price analysis, check to measure Progressive Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Progressive Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Progressive Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Progressive Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Progressive Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Progressive Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Progressive Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Progressive Corp. If investors know Progressive will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Progressive Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.053
Market Capitalization
77 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.078
Return On Assets
0.0131
Return On Equity
0.0514
The market value of Progressive Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Progressive that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Progressive Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Progressive Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Progressive Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Progressive Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Progressive Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Progressive Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Progressive Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.