Penn National Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 40.17

PENN
 Stock
  

USD 35.03  0.67  1.88%   

Penn National's future price is the expected price of Penn National instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Penn National Gaming performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is expected to rise to 1.55 this year. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 79.38 this year.
  
Penn National's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Penn National Gaming. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Penn National based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Penn National Gaming over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-09 CALL at $35.0 is a CALL option contract on Penn National's common stock with a strick price of 35.0 expiring on 2022-12-09. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-02 at 15:54:13 for $0.8 and, as of today, has 6 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.8, and an ask price of $0.85. The implied volatility as of the 3rd of December is 43.2197. View All Penn National options

Closest to current price Penn National long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Penn National Backtesting, Penn National Valuation, Penn National Correlation, Penn National Hype Analysis, Penn National Volatility, Penn National History as well as Penn National Performance. Please specify Penn National time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Penn National odds to be computed.

Penn National Target Price Odds to finish below 40.17

The tendency of Penn National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 40.17  after 90 days
 35.03 90 days 40.17 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Penn National to stay under $ 40.17  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Penn National Gaming probability density function shows the probability of Penn National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Penn National Gaming price to stay between its current price of $ 35.03  and $ 40.17  at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.59 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.65 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Penn National will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0583, implying that it can generate a 0.0583 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Penn National Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Penn National

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Penn National Gaming. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Penn National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Penn National in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
31.5234.8538.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31.6746.2249.55
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
38.0083.69150.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.502.642.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Penn National. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Penn National's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Penn National's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Penn National Gaming.

Penn National Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Penn National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Penn National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Penn National Gaming, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Penn National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.06
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.65
σ
Overall volatility
2.92
Ir
Information ratio 0.0368

Penn National Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Penn National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Penn National Gaming can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Penn National Gaming has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: DraftKings downgraded as analyst cautions more risk to profitability - Yahoo Canada Finance

Penn National Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Penn National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Penn National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Penn National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding175500000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments1863000000.00

Penn National Technical Analysis

Penn National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Penn National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Penn National Gaming. In general, you should focus on analyzing Penn National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Penn National Predictive Forecast Models

Penn National time-series forecasting models is one of many Penn National's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Penn National's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Penn National Gaming

Checking the ongoing alerts about Penn National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Penn National Gaming help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Penn National Gaming has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: DraftKings downgraded as analyst cautions more risk to profitability - Yahoo Canada Finance
Please check Penn National Backtesting, Penn National Valuation, Penn National Correlation, Penn National Hype Analysis, Penn National Volatility, Penn National History as well as Penn National Performance. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Penn National Gaming price analysis, check to measure Penn National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Penn National is operating at the current time. Most of Penn National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Penn National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Penn National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Penn National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Penn National's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penn National. If investors know Penn National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Penn National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.38
Market Capitalization
5.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.075
Return On Assets
0.0428
Return On Equity
0.0735
The market value of Penn National Gaming is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Penn National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Penn National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Penn National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Penn National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Penn National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Penn National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Penn National value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Penn National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.