Park City Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.49

PCYG
 Stock
  

USD 4.67  0.02  0.43%   

Park City's future price is the expected price of Park City instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Park City Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 4.37. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 39.12.
  
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Park City's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Park City Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Park City based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Park City Group over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $5.0 is a CALL option contract on Park City's common stock with a strick price of 5.0 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-27 at 11:28:55 for $0.05 and, as of today, has 17 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.0, and an ask price of $0.2. The implied volatility as of the 28th of June is 39.7721. View All Park City options

Closest to current price Park City long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Park City Backtesting, Park City Valuation, Park City Correlation, Park City Hype Analysis, Park City Volatility, Park City History as well as Park City Performance. Please specify Park City time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Park City odds to be computed.
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Park City Target Price Odds to finish below 5.49

The tendency of Park City Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 5.49  after 90 days
 4.67 90 days 5.49  about 91.58
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Park City to stay under $ 5.49  after 90 days from now is about 91.58 (This Park City Group probability density function shows the probability of Park City Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Park City Group price to stay between its current price of $ 4.67  and $ 5.49  at the end of the 90-day period is about 76.49 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Park City has a beta of 0.56 indicating as returns on the market go up, Park City average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Park City Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Park City Group is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Park City Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Park City

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Park City Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Park City's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Park City in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.964.568.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
2.155.759.35
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
1.114.718.32
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
9.009.009.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Park City. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Park City's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Park City's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Park City Group.

Park City Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Park City is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Park City's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Park City Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Park City within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.15
β
Beta against DOW0.56
σ
Overall volatility
0.34
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Park City Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Park City for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Park City Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Park City Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Park City Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Park City Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 38.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from www.bloomberg.com: Dubai IPO Tecom Draws 9.6 Billion in Orders for the Share Sales - Bloomberg

Park City Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Park City Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Park City's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Park City's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.50%
Short Percent Of Float5.64%
Float Shares12.47M
Shares Short Prior Month722.35k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day43.95k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month51.34k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Park City Technical Analysis

Park City's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Park City Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Park City Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Park City Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Park City Predictive Forecast Models

Park City time-series forecasting models is one of many Park City's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Park City's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Park City Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about Park City for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Park City Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Park City Alerts

Park City Alerts and Suggestions

Park City Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Park City Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Park City Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 38.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from www.bloomberg.com: Dubai IPO Tecom Draws 9.6 Billion in Orders for the Share Sales - Bloomberg
Please check Park City Backtesting, Park City Valuation, Park City Correlation, Park City Hype Analysis, Park City Volatility, Park City History as well as Park City Performance. Note that the Park City Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Park City's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Complementary Tools for Park City Stock analysis

When running Park City Group price analysis, check to measure Park City's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Park City is operating at the current time. Most of Park City's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Park City's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Park City's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Park City to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Park City's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Park City. If investors know Park City will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Park City listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.65
Market Capitalization
86.5 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.24
Return On Assets
0.0526
Return On Equity
0.0929
The market value of Park City Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Park City that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Park City's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Park City's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Park City's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Park City's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Park City's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Park City value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Park City's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.