OceanFirst Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 20.87

OCFC
 Stock
  

USD 20.87  0.29  1.41%   

OceanFirst Financial's future price is the expected price of OceanFirst Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of OceanFirst Financial Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. OceanFirst Financial Price to Book Value is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Price to Book Value was at 1.28. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 18.16, whereas Price to Sales Ratio is forecasted to decline to 4.72.
  
OceanFirst Financial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on OceanFirst Financial Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of OceanFirst Financial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in OceanFirst Financial Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $17.5 is a CALL option contract on OceanFirst Financial's common stock with a strick price of 17.5 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 12 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.0, and an ask price of $5.4. The implied volatility as of the 7th of August is 96.0946. View All OceanFirst options

Closest to current price OceanFirst long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check OceanFirst Financial Backtesting, OceanFirst Financial Valuation, OceanFirst Financial Correlation, OceanFirst Financial Hype Analysis, OceanFirst Financial Volatility, OceanFirst Financial History as well as OceanFirst Financial Performance. Please specify OceanFirst Financial time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like OceanFirst Financial odds to be computed.

OceanFirst Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 20.87

The tendency of OceanFirst Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 20.87 90 days 20.87 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of OceanFirst Financial to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This OceanFirst Financial Corp probability density function shows the probability of OceanFirst Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days OceanFirst Financial has a beta of 0.71. This indicates as returns on the market go up, OceanFirst Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding OceanFirst Financial Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1881, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   OceanFirst Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for OceanFirst Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OceanFirst Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of OceanFirst Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of OceanFirst Financial in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
19.3820.8422.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
18.7825.1426.60
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
19.1820.6422.10
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
24.5026.4431.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as OceanFirst Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against OceanFirst Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, OceanFirst Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in OceanFirst Financial Corp.

OceanFirst Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. OceanFirst Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the OceanFirst Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold OceanFirst Financial Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of OceanFirst Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.19
β
Beta against DOW0.71
σ
Overall volatility
0.67
Ir
Information ratio 0.13

OceanFirst Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of OceanFirst Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for OceanFirst Financial Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
OceanFirst Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Independent Director Michael Devlin Just Sold A Bunch Of Shares In OceanFirst Financial Corp. - Simply Wall St

OceanFirst Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of OceanFirst Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential OceanFirst Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OceanFirst Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.87%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.68
Short Percent Of Float1.93%
Float Shares57.21M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day285.76k
Shares Short Prior Month1.13M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month275.5k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.32%

OceanFirst Financial Technical Analysis

OceanFirst Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. OceanFirst Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of OceanFirst Financial Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing OceanFirst Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

OceanFirst Financial Predictive Forecast Models

OceanFirst Financial time-series forecasting models is one of many OceanFirst Financial's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary OceanFirst Financial's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about OceanFirst Financial Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about OceanFirst Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for OceanFirst Financial Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

OceanFirst Financial Alerts

OceanFirst Financial Alerts and Suggestions

OceanFirst Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Independent Director Michael Devlin Just Sold A Bunch Of Shares In OceanFirst Financial Corp. - Simply Wall St
Please check OceanFirst Financial Backtesting, OceanFirst Financial Valuation, OceanFirst Financial Correlation, OceanFirst Financial Hype Analysis, OceanFirst Financial Volatility, OceanFirst Financial History as well as OceanFirst Financial Performance. Note that the OceanFirst Financial Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other OceanFirst Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

Complementary Tools for OceanFirst Stock analysis

When running OceanFirst Financial Corp price analysis, check to measure OceanFirst Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OceanFirst Financial is operating at the current time. Most of OceanFirst Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OceanFirst Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OceanFirst Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OceanFirst Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is OceanFirst Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OceanFirst Financial. If investors know OceanFirst will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about OceanFirst Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.041
Market Capitalization
1.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.052
Return On Assets
0.0085
Return On Equity
0.0674
The market value of OceanFirst Financial Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OceanFirst that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OceanFirst Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OceanFirst Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OceanFirst Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OceanFirst Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OceanFirst Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine OceanFirst Financial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OceanFirst Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.