Oakmark Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 15.66

OAKEX
 Fund
  

USD 15.79  0.56  3.43%   

Oakmark International's future price is the expected price of Oakmark International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Oakmark International Small performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Please check Oakmark International Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Oakmark International Correlation, Oakmark International Hype Analysis, Oakmark International Volatility, Oakmark International History as well as Oakmark International Performance. Please specify Oakmark International time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Oakmark International odds to be computed.

Oakmark International Target Price Odds to finish below 15.66

The tendency of Oakmark Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 15.66  or more in 90 days
 15.79 90 days 15.66 
about 48.61
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Oakmark International to drop to $ 15.66  or more in 90 days from now is about 48.61 (This Oakmark International Small probability density function shows the probability of Oakmark Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Oakmark International price to stay between $ 15.66  and its current price of $15.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.28 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Oakmark International has a beta of 0.98. This indicates Oakmark International Small market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Oakmark International is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0164, implying that it can generate a 0.0164 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Oakmark International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Oakmark International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oakmark International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oakmark International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Oakmark International in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
14.1815.7817.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14.1615.7617.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
14.1915.7917.39
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
14.2415.3116.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Oakmark International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Oakmark International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Oakmark International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Oakmark International.

Oakmark International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Oakmark International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Oakmark International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Oakmark International Small, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Oakmark International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.016443
β
Beta against DOW0.98
σ
Overall volatility
0.71
Ir
Information ratio 0.009903

Oakmark International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Oakmark International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Oakmark International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Oakmark International has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Oakmark International generated five year return of -2.0%
This fund maintains 97.68% of its assets in stocks

Oakmark International Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Oakmark Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Oakmark International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oakmark International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.32
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.02%

Oakmark International Technical Analysis

Oakmark International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Oakmark Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Oakmark International Small. In general, you should focus on analyzing Oakmark Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Oakmark International Predictive Forecast Models

Oakmark International time-series forecasting models is one of many Oakmark International's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Oakmark International's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Oakmark International

Checking the ongoing alerts about Oakmark International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Oakmark International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Oakmark International Alerts

Oakmark International Alerts and Suggestions

Oakmark International has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Oakmark International generated five year return of -2.0%
This fund maintains 97.68% of its assets in stocks
Please check Oakmark International Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Oakmark International Correlation, Oakmark International Hype Analysis, Oakmark International Volatility, Oakmark International History as well as Oakmark International Performance. Note that the Oakmark International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Oakmark International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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When running Oakmark International price analysis, check to measure Oakmark International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oakmark International is operating at the current time. Most of Oakmark International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oakmark International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oakmark International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oakmark International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Oakmark International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Oakmark International value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oakmark International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.