Optimum Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 11.23

OAIEX
 Fund
  

USD 10.54  0.06  0.57%   

Optimum International's future price is the expected price of Optimum International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Optimum International Equity performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
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Please check Optimum International Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Optimum International Correlation, Optimum International Hype Analysis, Optimum International Volatility, Optimum International History as well as Optimum International Performance. Please specify Optimum International time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Optimum International odds to be computed.
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Optimum International Target Price Odds to finish over 11.23

The tendency of Optimum Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 11.23  or more in 90 days
 10.54 90 days 11.23  about 60.44
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Optimum International to move over $ 11.23  or more in 90 days from now is about 60.44 (This Optimum International Equity probability density function shows the probability of Optimum Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Optimum International price to stay between its current price of $ 10.54  and $ 11.23  at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.52 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Optimum International has a beta of 0.0051. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Optimum International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Optimum International Equity will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Optimum International is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Optimum International Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Optimum International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Optimum International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Optimum International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Optimum International in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.9910.5412.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.6010.1511.70
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
9.0110.5612.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.8410.8411.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Optimum International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Optimum International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Optimum International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Optimum International.

Optimum International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Optimum International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Optimum International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Optimum International Equity, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Optimum International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.22
β
Beta against DOW0.0051
σ
Overall volatility
0.68
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Optimum International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Optimum International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Optimum International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Optimum International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund generated three year return of -2.0%
Optimum International maintains 99.19% of its assets in stocks

Optimum International Technical Analysis

Optimum International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Optimum Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Optimum International Equity. In general, you should focus on analyzing Optimum Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Optimum International Predictive Forecast Models

Optimum International time-series forecasting models is one of many Optimum International's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Optimum International's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Optimum International

Checking the ongoing alerts about Optimum International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Optimum International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Optimum International Alerts

Optimum International Alerts and Suggestions

Optimum International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund generated three year return of -2.0%
Optimum International maintains 99.19% of its assets in stocks
Please check Optimum International Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Optimum International Correlation, Optimum International Hype Analysis, Optimum International Volatility, Optimum International History as well as Optimum International Performance. Note that the Optimum International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Optimum International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Optimum Mutual Fund analysis

When running Optimum International price analysis, check to measure Optimum International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Optimum International is operating at the current time. Most of Optimum International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Optimum International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Optimum International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Optimum International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Optimum International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Optimum International value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Optimum International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.