Realty Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 68.06

O
 Stock
  

USD 68.26  1.10  1.59%   

Realty Income's future price is the expected price of Realty Income instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Realty Income Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The Price to Book Value is projected to slide to 2.68. The value of Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to slide to 58.26.
  
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Realty Income's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Realty Income Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Realty Income based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Realty Income Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $67.5 is a CALL option contract on Realty Income's common stock with a strick price of 67.5 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-30 at 15:51:44 for $1.75 and, as of today, has 14 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.7, and an ask price of $1.85. The implied volatility as of the 1st of July is 25.0372. View All Realty options

Closest to current price Realty long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Realty Income Backtesting, Realty Income Valuation, Realty Income Correlation, Realty Income Hype Analysis, Realty Income Volatility, Realty Income History as well as Realty Income Performance. Please specify Realty Income time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Realty Income odds to be computed.
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Realty Income Target Price Odds to finish over 68.06

The tendency of Realty Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 68.06  in 90 days
 68.26 90 days 68.06  about 56.24
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Realty Income to stay above $ 68.06  in 90 days from now is about 56.24 (This Realty Income Corp probability density function shows the probability of Realty Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Realty Income Corp price to stay between $ 68.06  and its current price of $68.26 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.89 .
Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon Realty Income has a beta of 0.7. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Realty Income average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Realty Income Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1433, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Realty Income Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Realty Income

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Realty Income Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Realty Income's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Realty Income in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
66.6968.2569.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
61.4377.4178.97
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
71.1872.7474.29
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
63.0077.5085.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Realty Income. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Realty Income's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Realty Income's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Realty Income Corp.

Realty Income Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Realty Income is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Realty Income's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Realty Income Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Realty Income within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.14
β
Beta against DOW0.70
σ
Overall volatility
2.74
Ir
Information ratio 0.13

Realty Income Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Realty Income for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Realty Income Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Realty Income Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has accumulated 16.02 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.64, which looks OK as compared to the sector. Realty Income Corp has a current ratio of 0.72, which means it has a negative working capital and may have difficulties to pay out interest payments when they become due. Debt can assist Realty Income until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Realty Income's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Realty Income Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Realty to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Realty Income's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 77.0% of Realty Income shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.marketwatch.com: New Residential Investment Corp. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch

Realty Income Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Realty Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Realty Income's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Realty Income's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.97%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.82
Short Percent Of Float2.32%
Float Shares590.42M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day5.65M
Shares Short Prior Month11.87M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.07M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield4.15%

Realty Income Technical Analysis

Realty Income's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Realty Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Realty Income Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Realty Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Realty Income Predictive Forecast Models

Realty Income time-series forecasting models is one of many Realty Income's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Realty Income's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Realty Income Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Realty Income for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Realty Income Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Realty Income Alerts

Realty Income Alerts and Suggestions

Realty Income Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has accumulated 16.02 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.64, which looks OK as compared to the sector. Realty Income Corp has a current ratio of 0.72, which means it has a negative working capital and may have difficulties to pay out interest payments when they become due. Debt can assist Realty Income until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Realty Income's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Realty Income Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Realty to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Realty Income's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 77.0% of Realty Income shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.marketwatch.com: New Residential Investment Corp. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch
Please check Realty Income Backtesting, Realty Income Valuation, Realty Income Correlation, Realty Income Hype Analysis, Realty Income Volatility, Realty Income History as well as Realty Income Performance. Note that the Realty Income Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Realty Income's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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When running Realty Income Corp price analysis, check to measure Realty Income's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Realty Income is operating at the current time. Most of Realty Income's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Realty Income's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Realty Income's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Realty Income to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Realty Income's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Realty Income. If investors know Realty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Realty Income listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.3
Market Capitalization
41.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.83
Return On Assets
0.0203
Return On Equity
0.025
The market value of Realty Income Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Realty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Realty Income's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Realty Income's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Realty Income's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Realty Income's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Realty Income's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Realty Income value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Realty Income's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.