Nvidia Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 131.30

NVDA
 Stock
  

USD 131.30  0.79  0.60%   

Nvidia Corp's future price is the expected price of Nvidia Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Nvidia Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Nvidia Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Nvidia Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Nvidia Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Nvidia Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-07 CALL at $131.0 is a CALL option contract on Nvidia Corp's common stock with a strick price of 131.0 expiring on 2022-10-07. The contract was last traded on 2022-10-06 at 15:59:46 for $2.21 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.15, and an ask price of $2.2. The implied volatility as of the 7th of October is 74.1635. View All Nvidia options

Closest to current price Nvidia long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Nvidia Corp Backtesting, Nvidia Corp Valuation, Nvidia Corp Correlation, Nvidia Corp Hype Analysis, Nvidia Corp Volatility, Nvidia Corp History as well as Nvidia Corp Performance. Please specify Nvidia Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Nvidia Corp odds to be computed.

Nvidia Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 131.30

The tendency of Nvidia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 131.30 90 days 131.30 
about 86.8
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nvidia Corp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 86.8 (This Nvidia Corp probability density function shows the probability of Nvidia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.97 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Nvidia Corp will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Nvidia Corp is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Nvidia Corp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Nvidia Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nvidia Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nvidia Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Nvidia Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
127.21130.67134.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
118.17174.27177.73
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
187.50305.02400.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nvidia Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nvidia Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nvidia Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Nvidia Corp.

Nvidia Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nvidia Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nvidia Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nvidia Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nvidia Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.05
β
Beta against DOW1.97
σ
Overall volatility
22.72
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Nvidia Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nvidia Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nvidia Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Nvidia Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Nvidia Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Nvidia Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 29th of September 2022 Nvidia Corp paid $ 0.04 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: US STOCKS-Wall St slides as rising Treasury yields snuff out stock rally - Nasdaq

Nvidia Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nvidia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nvidia Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nvidia Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.44%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.64
Short Percent Of Float1.50%
Float Shares2.4B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day60.64M
Shares Short Prior Month31.73M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month55.85M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.52%

Nvidia Corp Technical Analysis

Nvidia Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nvidia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nvidia Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nvidia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Nvidia Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Nvidia Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many Nvidia Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Nvidia Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Nvidia Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Nvidia Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nvidia Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Nvidia Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Nvidia Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Nvidia Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 29th of September 2022 Nvidia Corp paid $ 0.04 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: US STOCKS-Wall St slides as rising Treasury yields snuff out stock rally - Nasdaq
Additionally, see Nvidia Corp Backtesting, Nvidia Corp Valuation, Nvidia Corp Correlation, Nvidia Corp Hype Analysis, Nvidia Corp Volatility, Nvidia Corp History as well as Nvidia Corp Performance. Note that the Nvidia Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Nvidia Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Complementary Tools for Nvidia Stock analysis

When running Nvidia Corp price analysis, check to measure Nvidia Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nvidia Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Nvidia Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nvidia Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nvidia Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nvidia Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Nvidia Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nvidia Corp. If investors know Nvidia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nvidia Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Nvidia Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nvidia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nvidia Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nvidia Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nvidia Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nvidia Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nvidia Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Nvidia Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nvidia Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.