Northern Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 85.63


USD 91.66  1.97  2.10%   

Northern Trust's future price is the expected price of Northern Trust instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Northern Trust performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 12/05/2022, Price to Book Value is likely to grow to 2.08. Also, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 15.66.
Northern Trust's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Northern Trust. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Northern Trust based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Northern Trust over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $92.5 is a CALL option contract on Northern Trust's common stock with a strick price of 92.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-02 at 15:57:20 for $1.35 and, as of today, has 11 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.05, and an ask price of $2.3. The implied volatility as of the 5th of December is 24.954. View All Northern options

Closest to current price Northern long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Northern Trust Backtesting, Northern Trust Valuation, Northern Trust Correlation, Northern Trust Hype Analysis, Northern Trust Volatility, Northern Trust History as well as Northern Trust Performance. Please specify Northern Trust time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Northern Trust odds to be computed.

Northern Trust Target Price Odds to finish below 85.63

The tendency of Northern Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 85.63  or more in 90 days
 91.66 90 days 85.63 
about 24.93
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Northern Trust to drop to $ 85.63  or more in 90 days from now is about 24.93 (This Northern Trust probability density function shows the probability of Northern Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Northern Trust price to stay between $ 85.63  and its current price of $91.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 44.35 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.37 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Northern Trust will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Northern Trust is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Northern Trust Price Density   

Predictive Modules for Northern Trust

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northern Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Northern Trust in the context of predictive analytics.
LowEstimated ValueHigh
LowReal ValueHigh
11 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northern Trust. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northern Trust's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northern Trust's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Northern Trust.

Northern Trust Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Northern Trust is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Northern Trust's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Northern Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Northern Trust within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
Alpha over NYSE Composite
Beta against NYSE Composite1.37
Overall volatility
Information ratio -0.05

Northern Trust Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Northern Trust for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Northern Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Northern Trust has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from Credit Suisse Group Upgrades Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. to Outperform - MarketBeat

Northern Trust Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Northern Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Northern Trust's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northern Trust's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding209008000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments83214800000.00

Northern Trust Technical Analysis

Northern Trust's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Northern Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Northern Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Northern Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Northern Trust Predictive Forecast Models

Northern Trust time-series forecasting models is one of many Northern Trust's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Northern Trust's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Northern Trust

Checking the ongoing alerts about Northern Trust for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Northern Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Northern Trust has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from Credit Suisse Group Upgrades Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. to Outperform - MarketBeat
Additionally, see Northern Trust Backtesting, Northern Trust Valuation, Northern Trust Correlation, Northern Trust Hype Analysis, Northern Trust Volatility, Northern Trust History as well as Northern Trust Performance. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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When running Northern Trust price analysis, check to measure Northern Trust's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Trust is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Trust's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Trust's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Trust's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Trust to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Northern Trust's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Trust. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Trust listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
19.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
Return On Assets
Return On Equity
The market value of Northern Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Trust's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Trust's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Trust's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Trust's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Northern Trust value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.