Northrop Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 470.31

NOC
 Stock
  

USD 470.31  2.83  0.60%   

Northrop Grumman's future price is the expected price of Northrop Grumman instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Northrop Grumman Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 18.40, whereas Price to Book Value is forecasted to decline to 5.50.
  
Northrop Grumman's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Northrop Grumman Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Northrop Grumman based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Northrop Grumman Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-12 CALL at $470.0 is a CALL option contract on Northrop Grumman's common stock with a strick price of 470.0 expiring on 2022-08-12. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-09 at 11:41:45 for $10.9 and, as of today, has 1 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $7.1, and an ask price of $10.0. The implied volatility as of the 11th of August 2022 is 38.0698. View All Northrop options

Closest to current price Northrop long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Northrop Grumman Backtesting, Northrop Grumman Valuation, Northrop Grumman Correlation, Northrop Grumman Hype Analysis, Northrop Grumman Volatility, Northrop Grumman History as well as Northrop Grumman Performance. Please specify Northrop Grumman time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Northrop Grumman odds to be computed.

Northrop Grumman Target Price Odds to finish over 470.31

The tendency of Northrop Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 470.31 90 days 470.31 
about 28.72
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Northrop Grumman to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 28.72 (This Northrop Grumman Corp probability density function shows the probability of Northrop Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Northrop Grumman has a beta of 0.64. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Northrop Grumman average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Northrop Grumman Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0158, implying that it can generate a 0.0158 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Northrop Grumman Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Northrop Grumman

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northrop Grumman Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northrop Grumman's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Northrop Grumman in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
467.85469.70471.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
431.83433.68517.42
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
483.17485.02486.87
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
331.00398.91460.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northrop Grumman. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northrop Grumman's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northrop Grumman's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Northrop Grumman Corp.

Northrop Grumman Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Northrop Grumman is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Northrop Grumman's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Northrop Grumman Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Northrop Grumman within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.015846
β
Beta against DOW0.64
σ
Overall volatility
11.93
Ir
Information ratio 0.005327

Northrop Grumman Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Northrop Grumman for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Northrop Grumman Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 15th of June 2022 Northrop Grumman paid $ 1.73 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.marketwatch.com: IPG Photonics Corp. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day - MarketWatch

Northrop Grumman Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Northrop Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Northrop Grumman's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northrop Grumman's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.11%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate6.04
Short Percent Of Float1.11%
Float Shares154.35M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day834.82k
Shares Short Prior Month1.92M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month820.36k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.25%

Northrop Grumman Technical Analysis

Northrop Grumman's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Northrop Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Northrop Grumman Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Northrop Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Northrop Grumman Predictive Forecast Models

Northrop Grumman time-series forecasting models is one of many Northrop Grumman's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Northrop Grumman's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Northrop Grumman Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Northrop Grumman for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Northrop Grumman Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Northrop Grumman Alerts

Northrop Grumman Alerts and Suggestions

Over 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 15th of June 2022 Northrop Grumman paid $ 1.73 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.marketwatch.com: IPG Photonics Corp. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day - MarketWatch
Additionally, see Northrop Grumman Backtesting, Northrop Grumman Valuation, Northrop Grumman Correlation, Northrop Grumman Hype Analysis, Northrop Grumman Volatility, Northrop Grumman History as well as Northrop Grumman Performance. Note that the Northrop Grumman Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Northrop Grumman's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for Northrop Stock analysis

When running Northrop Grumman Corp price analysis, check to measure Northrop Grumman's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northrop Grumman is operating at the current time. Most of Northrop Grumman's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northrop Grumman's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northrop Grumman's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northrop Grumman to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Northrop Grumman's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northrop Grumman. If investors know Northrop will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northrop Grumman listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.056
Market Capitalization
73.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.038
Return On Assets
0.11
Return On Equity
0.46
The market value of Northrop Grumman Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northrop that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northrop Grumman's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northrop Grumman's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northrop Grumman's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northrop Grumman's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northrop Grumman's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Northrop Grumman value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northrop Grumman's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.