Netflix Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 226.41


USD 226.41  10.64  4.49%   

Netflix's future price is the expected price of Netflix instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Netflix performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
Netflix's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Netflix. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Netflix based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Netflix over a specific time period. For example, 2022-09-30 CALL at $227.5 is a CALL option contract on Netflix's common stock with a strick price of 227.5 expiring on 2022-09-30. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-23 at 15:59:47 for $6.55 and, as of today, has 5 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $6.6, and an ask price of $6.8. The implied volatility as of the 25th of September is 61.9697. View All Netflix options

Closest to current price Netflix long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Netflix Backtesting, Netflix Valuation, Netflix Correlation, Netflix Hype Analysis, Netflix Volatility, Netflix History as well as Netflix Performance. Please specify Netflix time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Netflix odds to be computed.

Netflix Target Price Odds to finish over 226.41

The tendency of Netflix Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 226.41 90 days 226.41 
about 34.22
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Netflix to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 34.22 (This Netflix probability density function shows the probability of Netflix Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.12 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Netflix will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4997, implying that it can generate a 0.5 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Netflix Price Density   

Predictive Modules for Netflix

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Netflix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Netflix's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Netflix in the context of predictive analytics.
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LowReal ValueHigh
LowNext ValueHigh
28 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Netflix. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Netflix's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Netflix's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Netflix.

Netflix Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Netflix is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Netflix's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Netflix, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Netflix within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW2.12
Overall volatility
Information ratio 0.14

Netflix Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Netflix for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Netflix can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Netflix has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from Netflix Stock Analysts Cautious About Ad-Subsidized Service - Investors Business Daily

Netflix Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Netflix Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Netflix's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Netflix's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.97%
Short Percent Of Float3.02%
Float Shares438.64M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day9.78M
Shares Short Prior Month11.83M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month9.72M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Netflix Technical Analysis

Netflix's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Netflix Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Netflix. In general, you should focus on analyzing Netflix Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Netflix Predictive Forecast Models

Netflix time-series forecasting models is one of many Netflix's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Netflix's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Netflix

Checking the ongoing alerts about Netflix for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Netflix help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Netflix Alerts

Netflix Alerts and Suggestions

Netflix has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from Netflix Stock Analysts Cautious About Ad-Subsidized Service - Investors Business Daily
Additionally, see Netflix Backtesting, Netflix Valuation, Netflix Correlation, Netflix Hype Analysis, Netflix Volatility, Netflix History as well as Netflix Performance. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Netflix price analysis, check to measure Netflix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Netflix is operating at the current time. Most of Netflix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Netflix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Netflix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Netflix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Netflix's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Netflix. If investors know Netflix will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Netflix listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Netflix is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Netflix that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Netflix's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Netflix's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Netflix's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Netflix's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Netflix's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Netflix value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Netflix's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.