The9 Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.02

NCTY
 Stock
  

USD 1.02  0.01  0.97%   

The9's future price is the expected price of The9 instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of The9 Ltd ADR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
The9's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on The9 Ltd ADR. Implied volatility approximates the future value of The9 based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in The9 Ltd ADR over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 PUT at $2.5 is a PUT option contract on The9's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-05-27 at 15:47:39 for $1.2 and, as of today, has 15 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.95, and an ask price of $2.15. The implied volatility as of the 6th of October is 382.3921. View All The9 options

Closest to current price The9 long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see The9 Backtesting, The9 Valuation, The9 Correlation, The9 Hype Analysis, The9 Volatility, The9 History as well as The9 Performance. Please specify The9 time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like The9 odds to be computed.

The9 Target Price Odds to finish over 1.02

The tendency of The9 Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 1.02 90 days 1.02 
about 89.74
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of The9 to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 89.74 (This The9 Ltd ADR probability density function shows the probability of The9 Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.91 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, The9 will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The9 Ltd ADR is significantly underperforming DOW.
   The9 Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for The9

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as The9 Ltd ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of The9's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of The9 in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.051.036.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.050.986.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as The9. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against The9's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, The9's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in The9 Ltd ADR.

The9 Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. The9 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the The9's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold The9 Ltd ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of The9 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.7
β
Beta against DOW1.91
σ
Overall volatility
0.30
Ir
Information ratio -0.13

The9 Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of The9 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for The9 Ltd ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The9 Ltd ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The9 Ltd ADR has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The9 Ltd ADR has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
The9 Ltd ADR has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 135.88 M. Net Loss for the year was (411.23 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (188.65 K).
The9 Ltd ADR currently holds about 429.22 M in cash with (687.69 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 18.21, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Trip.com Group Limited Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha

The9 Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of The9 Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential The9's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. The9's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.30%
Float Shares19.08M
Shares Short Prior Month391.55k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day191.84k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month420.88k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

The9 Technical Analysis

The9's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. The9 Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of The9 Ltd ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing The9 Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

The9 Predictive Forecast Models

The9 time-series forecasting models is one of many The9's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary The9's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about The9 Ltd ADR

Checking the ongoing alerts about The9 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for The9 Ltd ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The9 Ltd ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The9 Ltd ADR has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The9 Ltd ADR has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
The9 Ltd ADR has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 135.88 M. Net Loss for the year was (411.23 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (188.65 K).
The9 Ltd ADR currently holds about 429.22 M in cash with (687.69 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 18.21, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Trip.com Group Limited Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha
Additionally, see The9 Backtesting, The9 Valuation, The9 Correlation, The9 Hype Analysis, The9 Volatility, The9 History as well as The9 Performance. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running The9 Ltd ADR price analysis, check to measure The9's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy The9 is operating at the current time. Most of The9's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of The9's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move The9's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of The9 to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is The9's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of The9. If investors know The9 will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about The9 listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of The9 Ltd ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of The9 that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of The9's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is The9's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because The9's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect The9's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between The9's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine The9 value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, The9's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.