National Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.5

NCMI
 Stock
  

USD 0.41  0.03  6.82%   

National CineMedia's future price is the expected price of National CineMedia instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of National CineMedia performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is estimated to decrease to -0.78. The current Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to decrease to -4.09.
  
National CineMedia's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on National CineMedia. Implied volatility approximates the future value of National CineMedia based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in National CineMedia over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on National CineMedia's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-06 at 13:48:34 for $0.04 and, as of today, has 9 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.0, and an ask price of $0.05. The implied volatility as of the 7th of December is 818.7694. View All National options

Closest to current price National long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see National CineMedia Backtesting, National CineMedia Valuation, National CineMedia Correlation, National CineMedia Hype Analysis, National CineMedia Volatility, National CineMedia History as well as National CineMedia Performance. Please specify National CineMedia time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like National CineMedia odds to be computed.

National CineMedia Target Price Odds to finish over 4.5

The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 4.50  or more in 90 days
 0.41 90 days 4.50 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National CineMedia to move over $ 4.50  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This National CineMedia probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National CineMedia price to stay between its current price of $ 0.41  and $ 4.50  at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.92 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.58 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, National CineMedia will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. National CineMedia is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   National CineMedia Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for National CineMedia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National CineMedia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of National CineMedia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of National CineMedia in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.020.428.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.081.659.46
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.0080850.408.21
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
4.505.386.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National CineMedia. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National CineMedia's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National CineMedia's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in National CineMedia.

National CineMedia Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National CineMedia is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National CineMedia's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National CineMedia, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National CineMedia within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-1.34
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.58
σ
Overall volatility
0.24
Ir
Information ratio -0.17

National CineMedia Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National CineMedia for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National CineMedia can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
National CineMedia generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
National CineMedia has high historical volatility and very poor performance
National CineMedia has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
The company currently holds 1.09 B in liabilities. National CineMedia has a current ratio of 0.5, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist National CineMedia until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, National CineMedia's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like National CineMedia sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about National CineMedia's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 114.6 M. Net Loss for the year was (118.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 37.7 M.
National CineMedia currently holds about 73.4 M in cash with (95.2 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.9, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Latest headline from news.google.com: Hot Stocks Movie theater chains rally YMM jumps on earnings PAGS falls - Seeking Alpha

National CineMedia Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National CineMedia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National CineMedia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding79867332.00
Cash And Short Term Investments101500000.00

National CineMedia Technical Analysis

National CineMedia's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National CineMedia. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

National CineMedia Predictive Forecast Models

National CineMedia time-series forecasting models is one of many National CineMedia's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary National CineMedia's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about National CineMedia

Checking the ongoing alerts about National CineMedia for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National CineMedia help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
National CineMedia generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
National CineMedia has high historical volatility and very poor performance
National CineMedia has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
The company currently holds 1.09 B in liabilities. National CineMedia has a current ratio of 0.5, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist National CineMedia until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, National CineMedia's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like National CineMedia sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about National CineMedia's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 114.6 M. Net Loss for the year was (118.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 37.7 M.
National CineMedia currently holds about 73.4 M in cash with (95.2 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.9, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Latest headline from news.google.com: Hot Stocks Movie theater chains rally YMM jumps on earnings PAGS falls - Seeking Alpha
Additionally, see National CineMedia Backtesting, National CineMedia Valuation, National CineMedia Correlation, National CineMedia Hype Analysis, National CineMedia Volatility, National CineMedia History as well as National CineMedia Performance. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running National CineMedia price analysis, check to measure National CineMedia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National CineMedia is operating at the current time. Most of National CineMedia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National CineMedia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National CineMedia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National CineMedia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National CineMedia's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National CineMedia. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National CineMedia listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.15) 
Market Capitalization
35.7 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.719
Return On Assets
(0.0053) 
The market value of National CineMedia is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National CineMedia's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National CineMedia's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National CineMedia's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National CineMedia's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National CineMedia's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine National CineMedia value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National CineMedia's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.