Murphy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 283.67

MUSA
 Stock
  

USD 283.67  0.33  0.12%   

Murphy USA's future price is the expected price of Murphy USA instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Murphy USA performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Murphy USA's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Murphy USA. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Murphy USA based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Murphy USA over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $280.0 is a CALL option contract on Murphy USA's common stock with a strick price of 280.0 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-29 at 14:17:23 for $7.9 and, as of today, has 16 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $8.9, and an ask price of $13.5. The implied volatility as of the 5th of October is 38.1625. View All Murphy options

Closest to current price Murphy long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Murphy USA Backtesting, Murphy USA Valuation, Murphy USA Correlation, Murphy USA Hype Analysis, Murphy USA Volatility, Murphy USA History as well as Murphy USA Performance. Please specify Murphy USA time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Murphy USA odds to be computed.

Murphy USA Target Price Odds to finish over 283.67

The tendency of Murphy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 283.67 90 days 283.67 
about 39.39
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Murphy USA to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 39.39 (This Murphy USA probability density function shows the probability of Murphy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Murphy USA has a beta of 0.7. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Murphy USA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Murphy USA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.3091, implying that it can generate a 0.31 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Murphy USA Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Murphy USA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Murphy USA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy USA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Murphy USA in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
273.10274.96276.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
257.68259.54302.40
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
284.26286.12287.98
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
175.00190.75205.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Murphy USA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Murphy USA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Murphy USA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Murphy USA.

Murphy USA Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Murphy USA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Murphy USA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Murphy USA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Murphy USA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.31
β
Beta against DOW0.70
σ
Overall volatility
14.38
Ir
Information ratio 0.17

Murphy USA Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Murphy USA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Murphy USA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Murphy USA is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 8th of September 2022 Murphy USA paid $ 0.32 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.investors.com: Dow Jones Surges 765 Points To Start New Stock Market Rally Attempt, What To Do Now - Investors Business Daily

Murphy USA Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Murphy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Murphy USA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Murphy USA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out9.46%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.50
Short Percent Of Float11.83%
Float Shares21.39M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day392.13k
Shares Short Prior Month2M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month315.18k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.18%

Murphy USA Technical Analysis

Murphy USA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Murphy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Murphy USA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Murphy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Murphy USA Predictive Forecast Models

Murphy USA time-series forecasting models is one of many Murphy USA's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Murphy USA's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Murphy USA

Checking the ongoing alerts about Murphy USA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Murphy USA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Murphy USA is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 8th of September 2022 Murphy USA paid $ 0.32 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.investors.com: Dow Jones Surges 765 Points To Start New Stock Market Rally Attempt, What To Do Now - Investors Business Daily
Additionally, see Murphy USA Backtesting, Murphy USA Valuation, Murphy USA Correlation, Murphy USA Hype Analysis, Murphy USA Volatility, Murphy USA History as well as Murphy USA Performance. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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When running Murphy USA price analysis, check to measure Murphy USA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy USA is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy USA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy USA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy USA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy USA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Murphy USA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Murphy USA. If investors know Murphy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Murphy USA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Murphy USA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Murphy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Murphy USA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Murphy USA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Murphy USA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Murphy USA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Murphy USA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Murphy USA value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Murphy USA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.